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CIK (Credit Suisse Asset Mgmtome Fund) Predictability Rank


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What is Credit Suisse Asset Mgmtome Fund Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Credit Suisse Asset Mgmtome Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Credit Suisse Asset Mgmtome Fund Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Credit Suisse Asset Mgmtome Fund Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Eleven Madison Avenue, New York, NY, USA, 10010
Credit Suisse Asset Mgmt Income Fund Inc is a closed-end management investment company. The investment objective of the fund is to provide current income consistent with the preservation of capital. Credit Suisse serves as an investment adviser for the fund. Asset Management offers a wide range of investment products and functions across asset classes and investment styles. The division manages various regional portfolios, mutual funds, and other investment vehicles for governments, institutions, corporations and individuals.
Executives
Laura A Defelice director ONE MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10010
Brandi Sinkovich officer: Chief Compliance Officer ELEVEN MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10010
Samantha Kappagoda director C/O CREDIT SUISSE ASSET MANAGEMENT, LLC, ELEVEN MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10010
Rachael Inez Hoffman officer: Chief Compliance Officer 11 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10010
Antonio Muinos officer: Chief Compliance Officer ELEVEN MADISON AVENUE, 9TH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10010
Jason Patrick Gossett officer: Chief Compliance Officer RALEIGH LT BUILDING, MORRISVILLE NC 27560
Thomas J. Flannery officer: Chief Investment Officer ELEVEN MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10010
Saba Capital Management, L.p. 10 percent owner 405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 58TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10174
Omar Tariq officer: CFO & Treasurer ELEVEN MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10010
Csam Americas Holding Corp. other: Affiliate of InvestmentAdviser ONE MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10010
Jeffrey E Garten director AETNA INC., 151 FARMINGTON AVENUE, HARTFORD CT 06156
Mahendra R Gupta director WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY CAMPUS BOX 1133, ONE BROOKINGS DRIVE, ST. LOUIS MO 63130-4899
Terry Fires Bovarnick director C/O CREDIT SUISSE ASSET MANAGMENT, LLC, ELEVEN MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK CITY NY 10010
Steven N Rappaport director C/O ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT INC., 1735 MARKET STREET - 32ND FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
James Cattano director C/O ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT INC., 1735 MARKET STREET - 32ND FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103

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