Clene (CLNN) Predictability Rank

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What is Clene Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Clene Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Clene Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Clene Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Clene Inc (NAS:CLNN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

84C0:Germany

Address

6550 South Millrock Drive, Suite G50, Salt Lake City, UT, USA, 84121

Website

https://www.clene.com

Clene Inc is a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company pioneering the discovery, development, and commercialization of novel clean-surfaced nanotechnology (CSN) therapeutics. It is focused on the development of therapeutics for neurodegenerative diseases. It developed an electro-crystal-chemistry drug development platform that enables the production of concentrated, stable, clean-surfaced nanocrystal suspensions. It operates in one segment the development and commercialization of dietary supplements (Supplements). Products includes CNM-Au8, CNM-ZnA, CNM-AgZn17, rMetx, KHC46.

Executives

General Resonance Llc	10 percent owner	6510 SOUTH MILLROCK DRIVE, SUITE 250, HOLLADAY UT 84121
David J Matlin	director
Mark Mortenson	officer: Chief Science Officer	500 PRINCIPIO PARKWAY WEST, SUITE 400, NORTH EAST MD 21901
Robert Dee Etherington	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	6550 SOUTH MILLROCK DRIVE, SUITE G50, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84121
Matthew Kiernan	director	500 PRINCIPIO PARKWAY WEST, SUITE 400, NORTH EAST MD 21901
Arjun Jj Desai	director	C/O TRISALUS LIFE SCIENCES, INC., 6272 W. 91ST AVENUE, WESTMINSTER CO 80031
John Henry Stevens	director	6550 SOUTH MILLROCK DRIVE, SUITE G50, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84121
Chidozie Ugwumba	director	158 FILMORE STREET, DENVER CO 80206
Alison Mosca	director	26 PATRIOT PLACE, SUITE 301, FOXBORO MA 02035
Jonathon Gay	director	177 HUNTINGTON AVENUE, 21ST FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02115
Robert Glanzman	officer: Chief Medical Officer	6550 SOUTH MILLROCK DRIVE, SUITE G50, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84121
Morgan R Brown	officer: Chief Financial Officer	420 CHIPETA WAY, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84108
Vallerie Mclaughlin	director	6550 SOUTH MILLROCK DRIVE, SUITE G50, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84121
Reed N Wilcox	director	9667 S SILVERBERRY CIRCLE, HIGHLANDS RANCE CO 80129
Shalom Jacobovitz	director	6550 SOUTH MILLROCK DRIVE, SUITE G50, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84121