What is Cellectar Biosciences Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Cellectar Biosciences Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Cellectar Biosciences Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
100 Campus Drive, Florham Park, NJ, USA, 07932
Cellectar Biosciences Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. It is focused on the discovery, development, and commercialization of drugs for the treatment of cancer. The company's core objective is to leverage a proprietary phospholipid drug conjugate (PDC) delivery platform to develop PDCs that are designed to specifically target cancer cells and deliver improved efficacy and safety as a result of fewer off-target effects. It has one operating and reportable segment focused on utilizing its PDC platform to develop drugs for the treatment of cancer.
Executives
| Jarrod Longcor |
officer: Chief Business Officer |
C/O RIB-X PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 300 GEORGE STREET, SUITE 301, NEW HAVEN CT 06511 |
| Andrei Shustov |
officer: Senior Vice President, Medical |
7 PARKLAND DRIVE, MILFORD NJ 08848 |
| Darrell Shane Lea |
officer: Chief Commercial Officer |
7 PARKLAND DRIVE, MILFORD NJ 08848 |
| Chad J Kolean |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O CELLECTAR BIOSCIENCES, INC., 3301 AGRICULTURE DRIVE, MADISON WI 53716 |
| Douglas J Swirsky |
director |
C/O REXAHN PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 15245 SHADY GROVE ROAD SUITE 455, ROCKVILLE MD 20850 |
| Frederick W Driscoll |
director |
|
| Asher Chanan-khan |
director |
C/O CELLECTAR BISCIENCES, INC., 100 CAMPUS DRIVE NJ 07932 |
| James V Caruso |
director, officer: President and CEO |
C/O CELLECTAR BIOSCIENCES, INC., 8383 GREENWAY BLVD STE 600, MIDDLETON WI 53562 |
| Dov Elefant |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
EPICEPT CORPORATION, 270 SYLVAN AVENUE, ENGLEWOOD CLIFFS NJ 07632 |
| Friend John E. Ii |
officer: VP, Chief Medical Officer |
26 ORCHARD LANE, COLT NECK NJ 07722 |
| John Neis |
director |
505 S. ROSA ROAD, SUITE 201, MADISON WI 53719 |
| Stefan Loren |
director |
3226 AVENIDA DE SUENO, CARLSBAD CA 92009 |
| Stephen A Hill |
director |
50 AVENUE GENERAL DE GAULLE, BRUXELLES C9 9999999999 |
| Igor D Grachev |
officer: Chief Medical Officer |
15 REID LANE, MILLSTONE TWP NJ 08535 |
| Bernhardt Charles Thomas Iii |
officer: Interim CFO |
23 BIRCH ROAD, MALVERN PA 19355 |
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