CMPX (Compass Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Compass Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Compass Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Compass Therapeutics Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Compass Therapeutics Inc (NAS:CMPX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

80 Guest Street, Suite 601, Boston, MA, USA, 02135

Website

https://www.compasstherapeutics.com

Compass Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company that develops proprietary antibody therapeutics to engage the immune system to treat solid tumors and hematological malignancies. It is engaged in drug discovery by leveraging its proprietary antibody discovery engine to drug the immune system and identify optimal combinations empirically broadly. Through StitchMabs and common light chain platforms, these combinatorial insights can be rapidly translated into tailored bispecifics with monoclonal-like manufacturability. Its pipeline is comprised of the following product candidates; CTX-009, CTX-471, CTX-10726, VEGF-IO Bispecific, and CTX-8371.

Executives

Thomas J. Schuetz	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O RELYPSA, INC., 700 SAGINAW DR., REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Orbimed Advisors Llc	director, 10 percent owner	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Carl L Gordon	director, 10 percent owner	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Richard S Lindahl	director	NEXTEL, 2001 EDMUND HALLEY DR, RESTON VA 20191
David M Wurzer	director	C/O CURAGEN CORP, 555 LONG WHARF DR. 11TH FL., NEW HAVEN CT 06511
Vered Bisker-leib	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O COMPASS, 245 FIRST STREET, 3RD FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
James P Boylan	director	C/O ENAVATE SCIENCES, 2884 SAND HILL RD., STE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Ellen Chiniara	director	51 SAWYER ROAD, SUITE 200, WALTHAM MA 02453
Mary Ann Gray	director	201 W 70TH ST, SUITE 23K, NEW YORK NY 10023
Philip Ferneau	director	10 ALLEN STREET, HANOVER NH 03755
Orbimed Capital Gp V Llc	director, 10 percent owner	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Orbimed Genesis Gp Llc	director, 10 percent owner	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Miranda Jayne Toledano	director	C/O COMPASS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 80 GUEST STREET, SUITE 601, BOSTON MA 02135
Susan Kalled	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	COMPASS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 80 GUEST ST., SUITE 601, BOSTON MA 02135
Brett Kaplan	director	C/O PREVAIL THERAPEUTICS INC., 430 EAST 29TH STREET, SUITE 940, NEW YORK NY 10016