CMTG (Claros Mortgage Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is Claros Mortgage Trust Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Claros Mortgage Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Claros Mortgage Trust Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Claros Mortgage Trust Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Claros Mortgage Trust Inc (NYSE:CMTG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

REFI ACRE NREF IVR AOMR NYMT MITT SEVN AFCG ACR NLY AGNC STWD RITM BXMT ABR LADR ARR TWO ARI

Traded in Other Exchanges

5WO:Germany

Address

C/o Mack Real Estate Credit Strategies, L.P., 60 Columbus Circle, 20th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10023

Website

https://www.clarosmortgage.com

Claros Mortgage Trust Inc is a real estate investment trust. The company is focused mainly on originating senior and subordinate loans on transitional commercial real estate assets located in markets across the U.S.

Executives

Richard Mack	director, officer: See Remarks	60 COLOMBUS CIRCLE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10023
W Edward Walter	director
Jeffrey D Siegel	officer: See Remarks	C/O MACK REAL ESTATE CREDIT STRATEGIES, 60 COLUMBUS CIRCLE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10023
Mike Mcgillis	director, officer: See Remarks	C/O MACK REAL ESTATE CREDIT STRATEGIES, 60 COLUMBUS CIRCLE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10023
Vincent Tese	director	245 PARK AVE, 19TH FL., NEW YORK NY 10167
Steven Leonard Richman	director	C/O MACK REAL ESTATE CREDIT STRATEGIES, 60 COLUMBUS CIRCLE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10023
Jai Agarwal	officer: Chief Financial Officer	601 LEXINGTON AVE, 26TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Mary Haggerty	director	13190 SW 68TH PARKWAY, SUITE 110, TIGARD OR 97223
Pamela Liebman	director	C/O MACK REAL ESTATE CREDIT STRATEGIES, 60 COLUMBUS CIRCLE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10023
Andrew Mark Silberstein	director	C/O MACK REAL ESTATE CREDIT STRATEGIES, 60 COLUMBUS CIRCLE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10023
Koch Industries Inc	10 percent owner	4111 EAST 37TH STREET NORTH, WICHITA KS 67220
Koch Holdings, Llc	10 percent owner	4111 EAST 37TH STREET NORTH, WICHITA KS 67220
Beaverhead Capital, Llc	10 percent owner	4111 E. 37TH STREET NORTH, WICHITA KS 67220
Derrick D Cephas	director	690 LEE ROAD, WAYNE PA 19087
Priyanka Garg	officer: See Remarks	C/O MACK REAL ESTATE CREDIT STRATEGIES, 60 COLUMBUS CIRCLE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10023