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Cincinnati Bancorp (Cincinnati Bancorp) Predictability Rank


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What is Cincinnati Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cincinnati Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Cincinnati Bancorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Cincinnati Bancorp (Cincinnati Bancorp) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Cincinnati Bancorp Inc (OTCPK:CNNB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
RWCB STBI HFBL BCOW KFFB EDVR CFOK SVBT ESBS BSFO CAR:BPV CAR:MVZ.A CAR:BNC NSE:HDFCBANK SHSE:600036 NSE:ICICIBANK SAU:1120 ISX:BBCA XPAR:BNP MIC:SBER
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
6581 Harrison Avenue, Cincinnati, OH, USA, 45247
Website
https://www.cincinnatifederal.com
Cincinnati Bancorp Inc provides banking and financial services to individual and corporate customers in Hamilton County, Ohio, and surrounding areas. It provides mortgage banking services. Its business consists of taking deposits from the public and investing those deposits, together with borrowings and funds generated from operations, in one to four-family residential real estate loans, and, to a lesser extent, nonresidential real estate, and multi-family loans, home equity loans and lines of credit and construction and land loans.
Executives
Robert A. Bedinghaus director, officer: Executive Chairman 6581 HARRISON AVENUE, CINCINNATI OH 45247
Andrew J. Nurre director 6581 HARRISON AVENUE, CINCINNATI OH 45247
Harold L. Anness director 6581 HARRISON AVENUE, CINCINNATI OH 45247
Stuart H. Anness director 6581 HARRISON AVENUE, CINCINNATI OH 45247
Charles G. Skidmore director 6581 HARRISON AVENUE, CINCINNATI OH 45247
Philip E Wehrman director 6581 HARRISON AVENUE, CINCINNATI OH 45247
Joseph V. Bunke officer: President 6581 HARRISON AVENUE, CINCINNATI OH 45247
Gregory W Meyers officer: Chief Lending Officer FIRST FRANKLIN CORPORATION, 4750 ASHWOOD DRIVE, CINCINNATI OH 45241
Herbert C. Brinkman officer: Chief Financial Officer 6581 HARRISON AVENUE, CINCINNATI OH 45247
Henry C. Dolive other: Director of Subsidiary 6581 HARRISON AVENUE, CINCINNATI OH 45247
Deborah A Pastura other: Advisory Board Member 6581 HARRISON AVENUE, CINCINNATI OH 45247
Jay P Thelen other: Advisory Board Member 6581 HARRISON AVENUE, CINCINNATI OH 45247
Mark Anthe other: Advisory Board Member 6581 HARRISON AVENUE, CINCINNATI OH 45247