Coherent (Coherent) Predictability Rank

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What is Coherent Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Coherent Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Coherent (Coherent) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Coherent Inc (NAS:COHR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

5100 Patrick Henry Drive, Santa Clara, CA, USA, 95054

Website

https://www.coherent.com

Coherent Inc supplies photonics-based solutions for commercial and scientific research applications. The firm operates in two segments: OEM Laser Sources and Industrial Lasers & Systems. The OEM Laser Sources segment develops and manufactures products for the microelectronics, scientific research, government, and original equipment manufacturer markets. This business contributes the majority of revenue. The Industrial Lasers & Systems segment makes products for the materials processing, OEM components and instrumentation, and microelectronics markets, with a focus on higher-volume products that are sold in set configurations. The majority of Coherent's revenue is generated outside of the United States.

Executives

Kevin S. Palatnik	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2655 SEELY AVENUE, BLDG. 5, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Jay T Flatley	director	9885 TOWNE CENTRE DR, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Pamela Fletcher	director	C/O COHERENT, INC., 5100 PATRICK HENRY DRIVE, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Beverly Kay Matthews	director	C/O COHERENT, INC., 5100 PATRICK HENRY DRIVE, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Sandeep Vij	director	C/O XILINX INC, 2100 LOGIC DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95124
Michael R. Mcmullen	director	5301 STEVENS CREEK BLVD., MS 1A-LC, SANTA CLARA CA 95051
Stephen A Skaggs	director	5555 NE MOORE CT., HILLSBORO OR 97124
Andreas W Mattes	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O DIEBOLD, INCORPORATED, 5995 MAYFAIR RD, NORTH CANTON OH 44720
Garry W Rogerson	director	3120 HANSEN WAY, PALO ALTO CA 943041030
Mark Stewart Sobey	officer: EVP & Chief Operating Officer
Bret Dimarco	officer: Exec VP & Chief Legal Officer	PO BOX 54980 SANTA CLARA CA 95056-0980
Paul F Sechrist	officer: EVP Worldwide Sales & Services	5100 PATRICK HENRY DR SANTA CLARA CA 95054
John Ambroseo	director, officer: Pres. & CEO
Luis Spinelli	officer: Exec VP, CTO	P O BOX 54980 SANTA CLARA CA 950560980
Susan M. James	director	COHERENT, INC., P. O. BOX 54980, SANTA CLARA CA 95056-0980