COLD (Americold Realty Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is Americold Realty Trust Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Americold Realty Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Americold Realty Trust Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Americold Realty Trust Inc (NYSE:COLD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

COLD:Mexico

Address

10 Glenlake Parkway, South Tower, Suite 600, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30328

Website

https://www.americold.com

Americold Realty Trust Inc is the world's second-largest owner and operator of temperature-controlled warehouses behind privately held Lineage Logistics. The Atlanta, Georgia-based firm owns and operates approximately 239 temperature-controlled warehouses, spanning 1.4 billion cubic feet. In 2022, the firm derived more than 80% of its revenue from the United States but also has sizable operations in Europe, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. Americold supplements its core business by providing supply management and transportation services to its various customers. It operates as a real estate investment trust.

Executives

Thomas C Novosel	officer: See Remarks	AMERICOLD REALTY TRUST, 10 GLENLAKE PARKWAY NE, SUITE 700, ATLANTA GA 30328
Robert Scott Chambers	officer: EVP, Chief Commercial Officer	11465 JOHNS CREEK PARKWAY, SUITE 400, JOHNS CREEK GA 30097
Nathan H Harwell	officer: EVP & Chief Legal Officer	4080 JENKINS ROAD, CHATTANOOGA TN 37421
Michael Bryan Verbarendse	officer: see remarks	10 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, SUITE 600, SOUTH TOWER, ATLANTA GA 30328
Russell Scott Henderson	officer: EVP & Chief Investment Officer	10 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, SOUTH TOWER, SUITE 600, ATLANTA GA 30328
Snyder James C Jr	officer: See Remarks	10 GLENLAKE PKWY, SOUTH TOWER, SUITE 600, ATLANTA GA 30328
David Charles Moore	officer: See remarks	C/O AMERICOLD REALTY TRUST, INC., 10 GLENLAKE PKWY, STE 600, SOUTH TOWER, ATLANTA GA 30328
Richard Charles Winnall	officer: See remarks	C/O AMERICOLD REALTY TRUST, INC., 10 GLENLAKE PKWY, STE 600, SOUTH TOWER, ATLANTA GA 30328
Samantha L Charleston	officer: EVP & Chief Human Resources Of	10 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, SOUTH TOWER, SUITE 600, ATLANTA GA 30328
Kelly Hefner Barrett	director	4630 WYNMEADE PARK, MARIETTA GA 30067
Robert L Bass	director	7601 PENN AVENUE SOUTH, RICHFIELD MN 55423
Pamela K Kohn	director	3001 COLORADO BLVD, DENTON TX 76210
Chappelle George F. Jr.	director, officer: Interim CEO	C/O ADVANCEPIERRE FOODS HOLDINGS, INC., 9987 CARVER ROAD, BLUE ASH OH 45242
Carlos V Rodriguez	officer: EVP and COO	300 PHILLIPI ROAD, COLUMBUS OH 43228
James R Heistand	director	5127 FAIRWAY OAKS DRIVE, WINDERMERE FL 34786