What is Cannapharmarx Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Cannapharmarx Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Cannapharmarx Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
3204-Rideau Place SW, Suite 302, Calgary, AB, CAN, T2S 1Z2
Cannapharmarx Inc specializes in the acquisition, development, and operation of cannabis cultivation facilities in Canada. The group evolved to focus on producing medical cannabis and craft products. Its products Unique Genetics, Craft Products, and Medical Cannabis.
Executives
| Anthony Michael Panek |
director |
95 SOUTH STATE STREET, SUITE 2300, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84111 |
| Dominic Colvin |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
C/O CANNAPHARMARX, INC., 2 PARK PLAZA, SUITE 1200-B, IRVINE CA 92614 |
| John Hamilton Cassels |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
SUITE 500, 209 8TH AVENUE SW, CALGARY A0 T2P 1B8 |
| Richard Dale Orman |
director |
302, 3204 RIDEAU PLACE SW, CALGARY A0 T2S1Z2 |
| Andrew Clifford Steedman |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
1131 RIVERDALE AVE SW, CALGARY A0 T2S 0Y9 |
| Marc R Branson |
director |
977 KEITH ROAD, WEST VANCOUVER A1 V7T 1M6 |
| Gary J Herick |
10 percent owner |
7609 RALSTON ROAD, ARVADA CO 80002 |
| James F Samuelson |
director |
PO BOX 22, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92662 |
| Matthew Nicosia |
director, 10 percent owner |
2 PARK PLAZA, SUITE 400, IRVINE CA 92614 |
| Robert M Liess |
director |
2602 W. SAM ALLEN RD., PLANT CITY FL 33565 |
| Mathew D Sherwood |
director |
P.O. BOX 4375, DILLON CO 80435 |
| James E Smeeding |
director |
4029 GILBERT AVENUE, DALLAS TX 75219 |
| Elie M Khalife |
director |
9447 E. CROSS CREEK STREET, WICHITA KS 67206 |
| Steven J Rule |
director |
C/O CANNAPHARMARX, INC., ONE COLLINS DRIVE, SUITE 100, CARNEYS POINT NJ 08069 |
| Alexander R Giaquinto |
director |
120 MOUNTAIN VIEW BOULEVARD, BASKING RIDGE NJ 07920 |
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