CPNG (Coupang) Predictability Rank

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What is Coupang Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Coupang Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Coupang Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Coupang Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Coupang Inc (NYSE:CPNG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CPNG:Mexico 788:Germany

Address

720 Olive Way, Suite 600, Seattle, WA, USA, 05510

Website

https://www.aboutcoupang.com

Coupang is South Korea's largest e-commerce platform that sells both owned and third-party inventory. Headquartered in the US, Coupang operates e-commerce businesses mainly in South Korea and Taiwan. The company has built an integrated logistics network that covers the entirety of South Korea, with extensive fulfillment centers that ensure timely delivery, even for orders placed seconds before midnight. Outside of its bread-and-butter e-commerce business, Coupang has expanded into provision of its Rocket delivery services to third-party merchants (fulfillment and logistics by Coupang), online grocery delivery Rocket Fresh, online meal delivery (Eats), e-commerce in Taiwan, luxury e-commerce (Farfetch), and travel.

Executives

Hanseung Kang	officer: Rep Director, Business Mngmt	C/O COUPANG, INC., TOWER 730, 570, SONGPA-DAERO, SONGPA-GU, SEOUL M5 05510
Benjamin Sun	director	C/O COUPANG, INC., TOWER 730, 570, SONGPA-DAERO, SONGPA-GU, SEOUL M5 05510
Gaurav Anand	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O COUPANG, INC., TOWER 730, 570, SONGPA-DAERO, SONGPA-GU, SEOUL M5 05510
Greenoaks Capital Partners Llc	director, 10 percent owner, other: See Remarks	4 ORINDA WAY BUILDING C, SUITE 200, ORINDA CA 94563
Bom Suk Kim	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO and Chairman	C/O COUPANG, INC., TOWER 730, 570, SONGPA-DAERO, SONGPA-GU, SEOUL M5 05510
Jonathan D. Lee	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	ONE PARK PLACE, SUITE 600, DUBLIN CA 94568
Harold Rogers	officer: See Remarks	C/O COUPANG, INC., TOWER 730, 570, SONGPA-DAERO, SONGPA-GU, SEOUL M5 05510
Neil Mehta	director	535 PACIFIC AVENUE, 4TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94133
Svf Investments (uk) Ltd	10 percent owner	69 GROSVENOR STREET, LONDON X0 W1K3JP
Tae Jung Kim	officer: See Remarks	720 OLIVE WAY, SUITE 600, SEATTLE WA 98101
Pedro Franceschi	director	C/O COUPANG, INC., TOWER 730, 570, SONGPA-DAERO,SONGPA-GU, SEOUL M5 05510
Ambereen Toubassy	director	720 OLIVE WAY, SUITE 600, SEATTLE WA 98101
Thuan Pham	officer: Chief Technology Officer	1455 MARKET STREET 4TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Kevin M Warsh	director	55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, NE, ATLANTA GA 30328
Michael Parker	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O COUPANG, INC., TOWER 730, 570, SONGPA-DAERO, SONGPA-GU, SEOUL M5 05510