Carbon Energy (Carbon Energy) Predictability Rank

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What is Carbon Energy Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Carbon Energy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Carbon Energy (Carbon Energy) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Carbon Energy Corp (OTCPK:CRBO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1700 Broadway, Suite 1170, Denver, CO, USA, 80290

Website

https://www.carbonenergycorp.com

Carbon Energy Corp is an independent natural gas and oil company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids properties located in the United States. The company operates in Kentucky, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia, California, Illinois, and Indiana.

Executives

Patrick R Mcdonald	director, officer: CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER	CARBON NATURAL GAS COMPANY 1700 BROADWAY, SUITE #1170 DENVER CO 80290
Erich W. Kirsch	officer: PFO and PAO	1700 BROADWAY SUITE 1170 DENVER CO 80290
Mark Duane Pierce	officer: PRESIDENT	1700 BROADWAY, SUITE 1170 DENVER CO 80290
Kevin D Struzeski	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	C/O CARBON ENERGY CORP 1700 BROADWAY STE. 1150 DENVER CO 80290
John A Bailey	director	64 PERCH BAY WACCABUC NY 10597
Bryan H Lawrence	director	C/O CROSSTEX ENERGY HOLDINGS INC, 2501 CEDAR SPRINGS STE 600, DALLAS TX 75201
Peter A Leidel	director
Edwin H Morgens	director	C/O MORGENS WATERFALL VINTIADIS & CO, 600 5TH AVE, NEW YORK NY 10020
David H Kennedy	director	23 LAKESIDE AVE DARIEN CT 06820
James H Brandi	director	PO BOX 321, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73101
Awm Investment Company, Inc.	10 percent owner	527 MADISON AVENUE, SUITE 2600, NEW YORK NY 10022
Yorktown Energy Partners Xi, L.p.	10 percent owner	410 PARK AVENUE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Yorktown Xi Associates Llc	10 percent owner	410 PARK AVENUE, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Arbiter Partners Capital Management Llc	10 percent owner	530 FIFTH AVENUE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Marxe Austin W & Greenhouse David M	10 percent owner	C/O SPECIAL SITUATIONS FUNDS, 527 MADISON AVENUE, SUITE 2600, NEW YORK NY 10022

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