CRMD (Cormedix) Predictability Rank

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What is Cormedix Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cormedix Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Cormedix Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Cormedix Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Cormedix Inc (NAS:CRMD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

19KA:Germany

Address

300 Connell Drive, Suite 4200, Berkeley Heights, NJ, USA, 07922

Website

https://www.cormedix.com

Cormedix Inc is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing therapeutic products for the prevention and treatment of infectious and inflammatory diseases. The Company's focus is on the commercialization of its product, DefenCath, in the United States (U.S.) and other key markets.

Executives

Elizabeth Masson	officer: EVP, Head of Clinical Ops.	400 CONNELL DRIVE, SUITE 5000, BERKELEY HEIGHTS NJ 07922
Erin Mistry	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	300 CONNELL DRIVE, SUITE 4200, BERKELEY HEIGHTS NJ 07922
Joseph Todisco	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	400 CROSSING BOULEVARD, BRIDGEWATER NJ 08807
Alan W Dunton	director	VICURON PHARMACEUTICALS INC, 455 S GULPH ROAD SUITE 305, KING OF PRUSSIA PA 19406
Myron Kaplan	director	C/O KLEINBERG, KAPLAN, WOLFF & COHEN, PC, 551 FIFTH AVENUE, 18TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10176
Paulo F Costa	director	MACROGENICS, INC., ONE CORPORATE DRIVE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Robert A Stewart	director	360 MT. KEMBLE AVENUE, MORRISTOWN NJ 07960
Janet Dillione	director	ONE WAYSIDE ROAD, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Matthew T David	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	300 CONNELL DRIVE, SUITE 4200, BERKELEY HEIGHTS NJ 07922
Thomas Nusbickel	officer: EVP, Chief Commercial Officer	300 CONNELL DRIVE, SUITE 4200, BERKELEY HEIGHTS NJ 07922
Gregory Scott Duncan	director	44 MILTON AVENUE, ALPHARETTA GA 30009
Steven W Lefkowitz	director	SIX HARRISON STREET, NEW YORK NY 10013
Mehmood Khan	director	700 ANDERSON HILL ROAD, PURCHASE NY 10577
Armstrong Jr. John L.	officer: Exec VP of Tech Operations	C/O CORMEDIX INC., 1430 U.S. HIGHWAY 206, SUITE 200, BEDMINSTER NJ 07921
Phoebe Mounts	officer: General Counsel	400 CONNELL DRIVE, SUITE 5000, BERKELEY HEIGHTS NJ 07822