CareTrust REIT (CareTrust REIT) Predictability Rank

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What is CareTrust REIT Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CareTrust REIT Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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CareTrust REIT (CareTrust REIT) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » CareTrust REIT Inc (NYSE:CTRE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

7XC:Germany

Address

905 Calle Amanecer, Suite 300, San Clemente, CA, USA, 92673

Website

https://www.caretrustreit.com

CareTrust REIT Inc is a self-administered, publicly-traded REIT engaged in the ownership, acquisition, financing, development and leasing of skilled nursing, seniors housing and other healthcare-related properties. The Company has one reportable segment consisting of investments in healthcare-related real estate assets. It generates revenues by leasing healthcare-related properties to healthcare operators in triple-net lease arrangements. The Company generate revenues by leasing healthcare-related properties to healthcare operators in triple-net lease arrangements, under which the tenant is solely responsible for the costs related to the property (including property taxes, insurance, maintenance and repair costs and capital expenditures).

Executives

James Callister	officer: Executive Vice President	905 CALLE AMANECER, SUITE 300, SAN CLEMENTE CA 92673
Anne Olson	director	800 LASALLE AVENUE, SUITE 1600, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Careina D. Williams	director	905 CALLE AMANECER, SUITE 300, SAN CLEMENTE CA 92673
Spencer G Plumb	director	17140 BERNARDO CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 300, SAN DIEGO CA 92128
Diana Laing	director	THE MACERICH COMPANY, 401 WILSHIRE BVLD., STE. 700, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Mark D Lamb	officer: Chief Investment Officer	905 CALLE AMANECER, SUITE 300, SAN CLEMENTE CA 92673
Gary B Sabin	director	16955 VIA DEL CAMPO SUITE 110, SAN DIEGO CA 92127
Jon D Kline	director	903 CALLE AMANECER, SUITE 100, SAN CLEMENTE CA 92673
William M Wagner	officer: See Remarks	903 CALLE AMANECER, SUITE 100, SAN CLEMENTE CA 92673
David M. Sedgwick	officer: Vice President of Operations	27101 PUERTA REAL, SUITE 450, MISSION VIEJO CA 92691
Gregory K. Stapley	director, officer: President and CEO	27101 PUERTA REAL, SUITE 450, MISSION VIEJO CA 92691
Allen Barbieri	director
David G. Lindahl	director	27101 PUERTA REAL, SUITE 400, MISSION VIEJO CA 92691
Christopher R. Christensen	director	27101 PUERTA REAL, SUITE 450, MISSION VIEJO CA 92691
Ensign Group, Inc	10 percent owner	29222 RANCHO VIEJO RD., SUITE 127, SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO CA 92675