Chicago Rivet & Machine Co (Chicago Rivet & Machine Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Chicago Rivet & Machine Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Chicago Rivet & Machine Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Chicago Rivet & Machine Co (Chicago Rivet & Machine Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Chicago Rivet & Machine Co (AMEX:CVR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

901 Frontenac Road, Naperville, IL, USA, 60563

Website

https://www.chicagorivet.com

Chicago Rivet & Machine Co is in the fastener industry in North America. The company operates in two segments namely fasteners and assembly equipment. Its fastener segment consists of the manufacture and sale of rivets, cold-formed fasteners, parts, and screw machine products. The assembly equipment segment consists mainly of the manufacture of automatic rivet setting machines, automatic assembly equipment, and parts and tools for such machines. The majority of revenue is from the fastener segment. Geographically, the majority is from the United States.

Executives

Gregory D Rizzo	officer: Chief Executive Officer	901 FRONTENAC ROAD, NAPERVILLE IL 60563
Morrissey Walter W Jr	director	901 FRONTENAC ROAD, NAPERVILLE IL 60563
Patricia M Miller	director	901 FRONTENAC ROAD, NAPERVILLE IL 60563
James W Morrissey	director	901 FRONTENAC ROAD, NAPERVILLE IL 60563
Kurt Moders	director	901 FRONTENAC ROAD, NAPERVILLE IL 60563
John C Osterman	director	901 FRONTENAC ROAD, NAPERVILLE IL 60563
John L Showel	director	440 S. LASALLE STREET, SUITE 2118, CHICAGO IL 60605
Michael J Bourg	director	901 FRONTENAC ROAD, NAPERVILLE IL 60563
Kent H Cooney	director	11203 COUNTRY CLUB ROAD, WOODSTOCK IL 60098
Labold Jack J Jr	other: Sales Manager	901 FRONTENAC ROAD, NAPERVILLE IL 60563
Divane William T Jr	director	2424 NORTH 25TH AVENUE, FRANKLIN PARK IL 60131
George P Lynch	director	3030 WARRENVILLE ROAD, SUITE 215, LISLE IL 60532