Dell (DELL) Predictability Rank

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What is Dell Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Dell Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Dell (DELL) Business Description

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http://www.dell.com

Dell Inc is a Delaware Corporation, which was founded in 1984. The Company offers a range of technology solutions, including servers and networking products, storage products, services, software and peripherals, mobility products, and desktop PCs. The Company sells its products and services directly to customers through dedicated distribution channels, such as retailers, distributors, and resellers. Its business segments are Large Enterprise, Public, Small and Medium Business ('SMB'), and Consumer. Large Enterprise customers include large global and national corporate businesses. Public customers, which include educational institutions, government, health care, and law enforcement agencies, operate in their own communities. SMB segment is focused on helping small and medium-sized businesses get the most out of their technology by offering scalable products, services, and solutions. Consumer segment is focused on delivering what customers want from the total technology experience of entertainment, mobility, gaming, and design. The Company designs, develops, manufactures, markets, sells, and supports a range of products, solutions, and services. The Company also provides various customer financial services to its Commercial and Consumer customers. Its enterprise solutions include servers, networking, and storage products. The Company's services include a range of configurable IT and business services, including infrastructure technology, consulting and applications, and product-related support services. The Company offers Dell-branded printers and displays and a multitude of competitively priced third-party peripheral products such as printers, televisions, notebook accessories, mice, keyboards, networking and wireless products, digital cameras, and other products. The Company also sells a range of third-party software products, including operating systems, business and office applications, anti-virus and related security software, entertainment software, and products in various other categories. Client Products offers a variety of mobility and desktop products, including notebooks, workstations, tablets, smartphones, and desktop PCs, to its Commercial and Consumer customers. The Company offers or arranges various financing options and services for its Commercial and Consumer customers in the U.S. and Canada through Dell Financial Services ('DFS'). DFS offers a range of financial services, including originating, collecting, and servicing customer receivables related to the purchase of Dell products. DFS offers private label credit financing programs to qualified Consumer and Commercial customers and offers leases and fixed-term financing to Commercial customers. The Company sells its products and services directly to customers and through various other sales distribution channels, such as retailers, third-party solution providers, system integrators, and third-party resellers. Its customers include large global and national corpora