What is Dermira Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Dermira Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Dermira (Dermira) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
275 Middlefield Road, Suite 150, Menlo Park, CA, USA, 94025
Dermira Inc is a biopharmaceutical company focuses on the development and commercialization of medical dermatology products to dermatologists and their patients primarily in the United States.The company's late-stage product candidates include Cimzia, an injectable biologic tumor necrosis factor-alpha inhibitor to treat various inflammatory diseases, as well as to treat patients with moderate-to-severe chronic plaque psoriasis; Glycopyrronium tosylate, a small-molecule anticholinergic product that is in Phase III clinical trial for the treatment of primary axillary hyperhidrosis or excessive underarm sweating; and Olumacostat glasaretil, a small-molecule sebum inhibitor, which is in Phase III clinical trial to treat acne vulgaris or acne.
Executives
| Halley E Gilbert |
director |
C/O IRONWOOD PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 100 SUMMER STREET, SUITE 2300, BOSTON MA 02110 |
| William R Ringo |
director |
|
| Fred B Craves |
director |
750 BATTERY ST, STE 600, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111 |
| David E Cohen |
director |
3160 PORTER DRIVE, PALO ALTO CA 94304 |
| Thomas G Wiggans |
director, officer: CEO & Chairman of the Board |
|
| Jason Raleigh Nunn |
director |
1119 ST. PAUL STREET, BALTIMORE MD 21202 |
| Andrew Guggenhime |
officer: CFO |
C/O VAXCYTE, INC., 825 INDUSTRIAL ROAD, STE. 300, SAN CARLOS CA 94070 |
| Lori Lyons-williams |
officer: Chief Commercial Officer |
C/O DERMIRA, INC., 275 MIDDLEFIELD ROAD, SUITE 150, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| Kathleen Sebelius |
director |
C/O DERMIRA, INC., 275 MIDDLEFIELD ROAD, SUITE 150, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| Eugene A Bauer |
director, officer: Chief Medical Officer |
C/O APPLIED UV, INC., 150 N. MACQUESTEN PKWY, MOUNT VERNON NY 10550 |
| Lilly Eli & Co |
10 percent owner |
LILLY CORPORATE CENTER, DROP CODE 1094, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46285 |
| Mark Mcdade |
director |
C/O PROTINE DESIGN LAB, 7442 NORTH MARCER WAY, MERCER ISLAND WA 98040 |
| Matthew K Fust |
director |
C/O ULTRAGENYX PHARMACEUTICAL INC., 60 LEVERONI COURT, NOVATO CA 94949 |
| Canaan Partners Viii Llc |
director |
285 RIVERSIDE AVE, STE 250, WESTPORT CT 06880 |
| Canaan Viii Lp |
director |
2765 SAND HILL RD, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
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