DHY (Credit Suisse High Yield Bond Fund) Predictability Rank

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What is Credit Suisse High Yield Bond Fund Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Credit Suisse High Yield Bond Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Credit Suisse High Yield Bond Fund Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Credit Suisse High Yield Bond Fund Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Credit Suisse High Yield Bond Fund (AMEX:DHY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Eleven Madison Avenue, New York, NY, USA, 10010

Website

https://www.credit-suisse.com

Credit Suisse High Yield Bond Fund is a non-diversified, closed-end management investment company to seeks high current income and capital appreciation as a secondary objective.

Executives

Laura A Defelice	other: Trustee	ONE MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10010
Thomas J. Flannery	officer: Chief Investment Officer	ELEVEN MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10010
Brandi Sinkovich	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	ELEVEN MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10010
Samantha Kappagoda	other: Trustee	C/O CREDIT SUISSE ASSET MANAGEMENT, LLC, ELEVEN MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10010
Rachael Inez Hoffman	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	11 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10010
Antonio Muinos	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	ELEVEN MADISON AVENUE, 9TH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10010
Jason Patrick Gossett	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	RALEIGH LT BUILDING, MORRISVILLE NC 27560
Omar Tariq	officer: CFO & Treasurer	ELEVEN MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10010
Jeffrey E Garten	other: Trustee	AETNA INC., 151 FARMINGTON AVENUE, HARTFORD CT 06156
Mahendra R Gupta	officer: Chairman of Audit Committee, other: and Trustee	WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY CAMPUS BOX 1133, ONE BROOKINGS DRIVE, ST. LOUIS MO 63130-4899
Csam Americas Holding Corp.	other: Affiliate of InvestmentAdviser	ONE MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10010
Terry Fires Bovarnick	director	C/O CREDIT SUISSE ASSET MANAGMENT, LLC, ELEVEN MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK CITY NY 10010
Lawrence Joseph Fox	officer: Audit Committee Chairman &, other: Trustee	C/O ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT INC., 1735 MARKET STREET - 32ND FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
James Cattano	director	C/O ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT INC., 1735 MARKET STREET - 32ND FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Steven N Rappaport	director	C/O ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT INC., 1735 MARKET STREET - 32ND FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103

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