DMA (Destra Multi-Alternative Fund) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1990. Start your Free Trial

What is Destra Multi-Alternative Fund Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Destra Multi-Alternative Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Destra Multi-Alternative Fund Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Destra Multi-Alternative Fund's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Destra Multi-Alternative Fund Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Destra Multi-Alternative Fund (NYSE:DMA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

443 North Willson Avenue, Bozeman, MT, USA, 59715

Website

https://www.destracapital.com

Destra Multi-Alternative Fund is a non-diversified, closed-end management investment company that operates as an interval fund with a continuous offering of fund shares. The investment objective of the fund is to seek returns from capital appreciation and income with an emphasis on income generation.

Executives

Saba Capital Management, L.p.	10 percent owner	405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 58TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10174
Boaz Weinstein	10 percent owner	405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 58TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10174
Randi Jean Roessler	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	C/O DESTRA MULTI ALTERNATIVE FUND, 443 NORTH WILLSON AVENUE, BOZEMAN MT 59715
Robert A. Watson	officer: PRESIDENT	443 NORTH WILLSON AVENUE, BOZEMAN MT 59715
Zach Leeds	other: Assistant Portfolio Manager	1710 LARKIN ST, #11, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94109
Kenneth B. Merritt	officer: Assistant Secretary	443 NORTH WILLSON AVENUE, BOZEMAN MT 59715
Gossard Cory J	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	C/O PINE ADVISER SOLUTIONS, 501 S. CHERRY STREET, SUITE 1090, DENVER CO 80246
Jacob G. Schultz	officer: Secretary	443 NORTH WILLSON AVENUE, BOZEMAN MT 59715
Marcie Mcveigh	officer: Assistant Treasurer	225 PICTORIA DRIVE, SUITE 450, CINCINNATI OH 45246
Derek Jason Mullins	officer: CFO and Treasurer	C/O PINE ADVISOR SOLUTIONS, 501 S. CHERRY ST., SUITE 1090, DENVER CO 80246
Nicholas Dalmaso	director	10865 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS,, 31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Michael Erickson	director	C/O DESTRA CAPITAL ADVISORS LLC, 444 WEST LAKE STREET, SUITE 1700, CHICAGO IL 60606-0070
Jeffrey S. Murphy	director	C/O DESTRA CAPITAL ADVISORS LLC, 444 WEST LAKE STREET, SUITE 1700, CHICAGO IL 60606-0070
John Scott Emrich	director	C/O DESTRA CAPITAL ADVISORS LLC, 444 WEST LAKE STREET, SUITE 1700, CHICAGO IL 60606-0070
Aaron Jay Rosen	other: Advior Affiliate	10655 CALLE MAR DE MARIPOSA #4101, SAN DIEGO CA 92130