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Denmark Bancshares (Denmark Bancshares) Predictability Rank


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What is Denmark Bancshares Predictability Rank?

5 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Denmark Bancshares Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Denmark Bancshares Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Denmark Bancshares (Denmark Bancshares) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Denmark Bancshares Inc (OTCPK:DMKBA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
CWBC FNRN UBFO SBFG UBNC FUNC MNAT CPKF GBFH MLVF CAR:MVZ.A CAR:BNC SHSE:600036 NSE:HDFCBANK SAU:1120 SAU:1180 NSE:ICICIBANK USB PNC ISX:BBCA
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
103 East Main Street, Denmark, WI, USA, 54208
Website
http://www.denmarkstate.com
Denmark Bancshares Inc is a diversified one-bank holding company. The company offers a wide variety of financial products and services including loans, deposits, mortgage banking, and investment services. In addition, the company also extends farm credit through its subsidiary Denmark Agricultural Credit Corporation. The company makes agribusiness, commercial and residential loans to customers throughout the state, but primarily in eastern Wisconsin.
Executives
Jeffrey G Vandenplas officer: VP of Denmark State Bank PO BOX 130 DENMARK X1 54208-0130
David L Kappelman officer: VP of Denmark State Bank PO BOX 130 DENMARK X1 54208-0130
Michael L Heim director 4946 DENMARK ROAD DENMARK WI 54208
Thomas F Wall director, officer: Chairman of the Board
William F Noel other: Director of Denmark State Bank PO BOX 130 DENMARK WI 54208-0130
Carl T Laveck officer: Executive Vice President PO BOX 130 DENMARK WI 54208-0130
Janet L Bonkowski other: Director of Denmark State Bank PO BOX 130 DENMARK WI 54208-0130
Mark E Looker director
Jill S Feiler other: VP of Denmark State Bank PO BOX 130 DENMARK WI 54208-0130
Diane L Roundy other: Director of Denmark State Bank PO BOX 130 DENMARK WI 54208-0130
Larsen Kenneth A Sr other: Director of Denmark State Bank 103 MAIN STREET PO BOX 130 DENMARK WI 54208-0130
Allen M Peters director 103 E MAIN ST DENMARK WI 54208
Evonne J Kreft officer: VP OF DENMARK STATE BANK 103 EAST MAIN STREET DENMARK WI 54208
Lonnie A Loritz officer: VP OF DENMARK STATE BANK 103 EAST MAIN STREET DENMARK WI 54208
John P Olsen officer: Senior VP Denmark State Bank