Dover (DOV) Predictability Rank

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What is Dover Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Dover Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Dover Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Dover Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Dover Corp (NYSE:DOV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0ICP:UK DOV:Germany DOV:Germany

Address

3005 Highland Parkway, Downers Grove, IL, USA, 60515

Website

https://www.dovercorporation.com

Dover Corp is a diversified manufacturer and solutions provider delivering equipment and components, consumable supplies, aftermarket parts, software digital solutions, and support services. It operates through five segments: engineered systems, clean energy, and fueling solutions, imaging and identification, pumps and process solutions, and climate and sustainability technologies equipment.

Executives

Ivonne M Cabrera	officer: SVP and General Counsel	C/O DOVER CORPORATION, 3005 HIGHLAND PARKWAY, SUITE 200, DOWNERS GROVE IL 60515
Girish Juneja	officer: SVP, Chief Digital Officer	3005 HIGHLAND PARKWAY, SUITE 200, DOWNERS GROVE IL 60515
Brad M Cerepak	officer: Senior Vice President and CFO	C/O DOVER CORPORATION, 3005 HIGHLAND PARKWAY, SUITE 200, DOWNERS GROVE IL 60515
Richard J Tobin	director, officer: CEO and President	3005 HIGHLAND PARKWAY, SUITE 200, DOWNERS GROVE IL 60515
Stephen M. Todd	director	C/O DOVER CORPORATION, 3005 HIGHLAND PARKWAY, SUITE 200, DOWNERS GROVE IL 606515
Anthony K Kosinski	officer: Vice President, Tax	3005 HIGHLAND PARKWAY, SUITE 200, DOWNERS GROVE IL 60515
Marc A Howze	director	DEERE & COMPANY, ONE JOHN DEERE PLACE, MOLINE IL 61265
Danita K Ostling	director	1665 UTICA AVENUE, ST. LOUIS PARK MN 55416
Michael Mark Manley	director	1000 CHRYSLER DRIVE, CIMS 485-09-96, AUBURN HILLS MI 48326
David J. Malinas	officer: SVP, Operations	36411 SOUTH PARK DRIVE, AVON OH 44011
Kristiane C Graham	director	C/O DOVER CORPORATION, 3005 HIGHLAND PARKWAY, SUITE 200, DOWNERS GROVE IL 60515
Kimberly Bors	officer: SVP, Human Resources	C/O DOVER CORPORATION, 3005 HIGHLAND PARKWAY, SUITE 200, DOWNERS GROVE IL 60515
James M Moran	officer: Vice President, Treasurer	C/O DOVER CORPORATION, 3005 HIGHLAND PARKWAY, SUITE 200, DOWNERS GROVE IL 60515
Ryan Paulson	officer: VP, Controller	3005 HIGHLAND PARKWAY, SUITE 200, DOWNERS GROVE IL 60515
Deborah L Dehaas	director	3005 HIGHLAND PARKWAY, SUITE 200, DOWNERS GROVE IL 60515