Dror Ortho-Design (Dror Ortho-Design) Predictability Rank

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What is Dror Ortho-Design Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Dror Ortho-Design Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Dror Ortho-Design Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Dror Ortho-Design (Dror Ortho-Design) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Interactive Media » Dror Ortho-Design Inc (OTCPK:DROR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

100 Merrick Road, Suite 400W, Rockville Center, New York, NY, USA, 11570

Website

https://www.novint.com

Dror Ortho-Design Inc Formerly Novint Technologies Inc is engaged in the development and sale of 3D haptics products and equipment. The company's focus is on the consumer interactive computer gaming market, but it also does project work in other areas. Its operations are based in New Mexico with sales of its haptics products primarily to consumers through retail outlets.

Executives

Eliyahu Haddad	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	SHATNER STREET 3, JERUSALEM L3 NA
Chaim Ravad	director	SHATNER STREET 3, JERUSALEM L3 NA
Yehuda Englander	director	SHATNER STREET 3, JERUSALEM L3 NA
Moshe Shvets	director, officer: Chief Technology Officer	SHATNER STREET 3, JERUSALEM L3 NA
Chaim Hurvitz	director	C/O GALMED PHARMACEUTICALS LTD., 8 SHAUL, HAMELECH BLVD, AMOT HAMISHPAT BLDG., TEL AVIV L3 64733
Orin Hirschman	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	101 EAST 52ND ST, NEW YORK NY 10022
Ryan Christoff	director	480 JOHNSON ROAD SUITE 303, WASHINGTON PA 15301
Congregation Ahavas Tzdokah Vchesed Inc.	10 percent owner, other: See Explanation of Responses	1347 42ND STREET, BROOKLYN NY 11219
Ellis International L.p.	other: See Explanation of Responses	100 MERRICK ROAD, SUITE 400W, ROCKVILLE CENTRE NY 11570
Brian W Long	director	1010 OHIO RIVER BLVD., PITTSBURGH PA 15202
Shannon Lee Vissman	director, 10 percent owner	1241 TURNBERRY DRIVE, UPPER ST. CLAIR PA 15241
Jan K Richardson	director	1821 HILLANDALE RD., SUITE 307, DURHAM NC 27705
Aigh Investment Partners, Llc	10 percent owner	6006 BERKELEY AVENUE, BALTIMORE MD 21209
V Gerald Grafe	director	901 RIO GRANDE BOULEVARD NW, BUILDING H, SUITE 262, ALBUQUERQUE NM 87104
Walter A Aviles	10 percent owner, officer: Chief Technical Officer	9620 SAN MATEO BOULEVARD NE, ALBUQUERQUE NM 87113

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