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Direct Selling Acquisition (Direct Selling Acquisition) Predictability Rank


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What is Direct Selling Acquisition Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Direct Selling Acquisition Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Direct Selling Acquisition Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Direct Selling Acquisition (Direct Selling Acquisition) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Direct Selling Acquisition Corp (OTCPK:DSAQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
NSTB NPAB TBCP ARRW OPA MCAC GATE FIAC EVGR GPAC PBAJ SVMB SCRM CVII AAC GHIX ALCC AACT DWAC SAGA
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
5800 Democracy Drive, Plano, TX, USA, 75024
Website
https://www.dsacquisition.com
Direct Selling Acquisition Corp is a blank check company.
Executives
Himanshu Gulati 10 percent owner 500 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 2320, NEW YORK NY 10110
Antara Capital Lp 10 percent owner 55 HUDSON YARDS, 47TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001
Antara Capital Master Fund Lp 10 percent owner 500 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 2320, NEW YORK NY 10110
Antara Capital Fund Gp Llc 10 percent owner 500 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 2320, NEW YORK NY 10110
Antara Capital Gp Llc 10 percent owner 500 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 2320, NEW YORK NY 10110
Antara Capital Total Return Spac Master Fund Lp 10 percent owner 55 HUDSON YARDS, 47TH FLOOR, SUITE C, NEW YORK NY 10001
Antara Capital Total Return Spac Fund Gp Llc 10 percent owner 55 HUDSON YARDS, 47TH FLOOR, SUITE C, NEW YORK NY 10001
Wayne Lee Moorehead director, officer: Chief Strategy Officer 123 EAST 200 NORTH, ALPINE UT 84004
Addison John A. Jr. director 3120 BRECKINRIDGE BLVD., DULUTH GA 30099
Dave Wentz director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 308 W 300, S #203, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84101
Bradford Richardson director 3838 WEST PARKWAY BLVD, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84120
Travis Ogden director C/O DIRECT SELLING ACQUISITION CORP., 5800 DEMOCRACY DRIVE, PLANO TX 75024
Mike Lohner director, officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O DIRECT SELLING ACQUISITION CORP., 5800 DEMOCRACY DRIVE, PLANO TX 75024
Heather Chastain director C/O DIRECT SELLING ACQUISITION CORP., 5800 DEMOCRACY DRIVE, PLANO TX 75024
Dsac Partners Llc 10 percent owner C/O DIRECT SELLING ACQUISITION CORP., 5800 DEMOCRACY DRIVE, PLANO TX 75024