What is DSS Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
DSS Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
DSS Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
275 Wiregrass Parkway, Henrietta, NY, USA, 14586
DSS Inc is operating a business focused on Five operating segments Product Packaging, Biotechnology, Commercial Lending, Securities and Investment Management, and Direct Marketing. Currently operates five distinct business lines operate around the globe with primary operations in North America and Asia. Product packaging manufactures, and sells sophisticated custom folding cartons, mailers, photo sleeves and complex three-dimensional direct mail solutions. Biotechnology division targets unmet, urgent medical needs and expands the borders of medical and pharmaceutical science. Commercial Lending through represents its banking and financing business line. Alternative Trading develops and/or acquires assets and investments in the securities trading and/or fund management arena.
Executives
| Chan Heng Fai Ambrose |
director |
2601 INSLAND PLACE TOWER, 510 KINGS RD N POINT, HONG KONG K3 999999999 |
| Wu William Wai Leung |
director |
C/O DOCUMENT SECURITY SYSTEMS, INC., 200 CANAL VIEW BLVD., SUITE 300, ROCHESTER NY 14624 |
| Lim Sheng Hon Danny |
director |
4800 MONTGOMERY LANE, SUITE 210, BETHESDA MD 20814 |
| Alset International Ltd |
10 percent owner |
10 WINSTEDT ROAD #02-02, SINGAPORE U0 227977 |
| Hiu Pan Wong |
director |
RM F, 47/F, TOWER 6, PARK AVENUE,, 18 HOI TING ROAD, TAI KOK TUSI, KOWLOON, HONG KONG F4 999077 |
| Shui Yeung Wong |
director |
4800 MONTGOMERY LANE, SUITE 210, BETHESDA MD 20814 |
| Todd D Macko |
officer: Interim CFO |
C/O 200 CANAL VIEW BLVD., SUITE 104, ROCHESTER NY 14623 |
| Tung Moe Chan |
director |
1601 BLAKE ST, SUITE 310, DENVER CO 80202 |
| Global Biomedical Pte. Ltd. |
10 percent owner |
7 TEMASEK BOULEVARD #29-01B, SUNTEC TOWER ONE, SINGAPORE U0 038987 |
| Sassuan (samson) Lee |
director |
200 CANAL VIEW BLVD., SUITE 300, ROCHESTER NY 14623 |
| Jose Escudero |
director |
200 CANAL VIEW BOULEVARD, SUITE 300, ROCHESTER NY 14623 |
| Jason Grady |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
1093 CARRINGTON WAY, VICTOR NY 14564 |
| Joseph L. Sanders |
director |
C/O DOCUMENT SECURITY SYSTEMS, INC., 28 EAST MAIN STREET, SUITE 1525, ROCHESTER NY 14614 |
| John Thatch |
director |
C/O SHARING SERVICES, INC., 1701 COIT ROAD, SUITE 100, PLANO TX 75075 |
| Stanley V. Grisham |
director |
2 CRESTED CLOUD CT., THE WOODLANDS TX 77380 |
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