DVA (DaVita) Predictability Rank

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What is DaVita Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

DaVita Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

DaVita Predictability Rank Related Terms

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DaVita Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » DaVita Inc (NYSE:DVA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0I7E:UK TRL:Germany TRL:Germany DVAI34:Brazil

Address

2000 16th Street, Denver, CO, USA, 80202

Website

https://www.davita.com

DaVita is the largest provider of dialysis services in the United States, boasting market share of about 35% when measured by clinics. The firm operates over 3,000 facilities worldwide, mostly in the US, and treats about 280,000 patients globally each year. Government payers dominate US dialysis reimbursement. DaVita receives about two thirds of US sales at government (primarily Medicare) reimbursement rates, with the remainder coming from commercial insurers. While commercial insurers represent only about 10% of US patients treated, they represent nearly all of the profits generated by DaVita in the US dialysis business. Berkshire Hathaway owns about 45% of DaVita.

Executives

Berkshire Hathaway Inc	10 percent owner	3555 FARNAM STREET, OMAHA NE 68131
Javier Rodriguez	officer: Chief Executive Officer, DKC	601 HAWAII ST., EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Joel Ackerman	officer: Chief Financial Officer	COVENTRY HEALTH CARE, INC., 6705 ROCKLEDGE DR SUITE 900, BETHESDA MD 20817
Michael David Staffieri	officer: Chief Operating Officer, DKC	2000 16TH STREET, DENVER CO 80202
Kathleen Alyce Waters	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O DAVITA INC., 2000 16TH STREET, DENVER CO 80202
Barbara J Desoer	director	CITIGROUP INC., 388 GREENWICH STREET, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
James O Hearty	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	2000 16TH STREET, DENVER CO 80202
Christopher Michael Berry	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O SONDER HOLDINGS INC., 101 15TH ST., SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Wendy Lee Schoppert	director	6105 TRENTON LANE NORTH, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55442
Phyllis R Yale	director
Charles Berg	director, officer: Executive Chair, DMG	48 MONROE TURNPIKE, TRUMBULL CT 06611
John M Nehra	director	1119 ST PAUL ST, BALTIMORE MD 21202
Adam H Schechter	director	2000 GALLOPING HILL ROAD, KENILWORTH NJ 07033
Jason M. Hollar	director	3333 BEVERLY ROAD, HOFFMAN ESTATES IL 60179
Paula A Price	director	ONE CVS DRIVE, WOONSOCKET RI 02895