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Dividend 15 Split II (Dividend 15 Split II) Predictability Rank


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What is Dividend 15 Split II Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Dividend 15 Split II Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Dividend 15 Split II Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Dividend 15 Split II (Dividend 15 Split II) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Dividend 15 Split Corp II (OTCPK:DVDDF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
TSX:RCG TSX:GDV TSX:FAP NEOE:ETHC TSX:RS TSX:MID.UN TSX:STCK TSX:BGI.UN TSX:RBN.UN TSXV:LPC BLK BX KKR OSTO:INVE A TSX:BN APO BK AMP XSWX:PGHN OSTO:EQT
Traded in Other Exchanges
DF.PR.A.PFD:Canada DF:Canada
Address
200 Front Street West, Suite 2510, P.O Box 51, Toronto, ON, CAN, M5V 3K2
Website
https://www.quadravest.com
Dividend 15 Split Corp II is a Canadian-based mutual fund corporation. The company invests in an actively managed portfolio of common shares comprised of large-capitalization dividend-yielding Canadian companies. Its investment objective for preferred shareholders is to provide fixed, cumulative, preferential quarterly cash distributions and to return the original issue price at maturity, and for class A shares holders are to provide monthly cash distributions and the opportunity for growth in Net Asset Value per share.

Dividend 15 Split II (Dividend 15 Split II) Headlines

From GuruFocus

DIVIDEND 15 SPLIT CORP. II Financial Results to May 31, 2021

By GlobeNewswire GlobeNewswire • 07-24-2021

Dividend 15 Split Corp. II Financial Results to November 30, 2022

By GlobeNewswire GlobeNewswire • 02-24-2023