DYN (Dyne Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Dyne Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Dyne Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Dyne Therapeutics Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Dyne Therapeutics Inc (NAS:DYN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1560 Trapelo Road, Waltham, MA, USA, 02451

Website

https://www.dyne-tx.com

Dyne Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage neuromuscular disease company focused on discovering and advancing life-transforming therapeutics for people living with genetically driven neuromuscular diseases. Its FORCE platform develops targeted therapeutics that are designed to overcome limitations in delivery to muscle tissue and the central nervous system, or CNS. Its FORCE platform therapeutics consist of a payload that is rationally designed to target the genetic basis of the disease are seeking to treat, a linker, and an antigen-binding fragment, that attaches to the payload using the linker. Its Pipeline includes DYNE-101, DYNE-251, DYNE-302, and DYNE-401.

Executives

Richard William Scalzo	officer: See Remarks	25 ALBERTA LANE, HOLLISTON MA 01746
Oxana Beskrovnaya	officer: See Remarks	C/O DYNE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 830 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Dirk Kersten	director, 10 percent owner	C/O FORBION CAPITAL FUND IV COOPERATIEF, GOOMIER 2-35, NAARDEN P7 14111 DC
Carlo Incerti	director	FORBION CAPITAL FUND IV COOPERAITEF U.A., GOOMIER 2-35, NAARDEN P7 1411DC
Jason P Rhodes	director, 10 percent owner	C/O EPIZYME, INC., 400 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, 4TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Susanna Gatti High	officer: Chief Operating Officer	75 LORIMER ROAD, BELMONT MA 02141
Wildon Farwell	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O DYNE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 830 WINTER STREET MA 02451
Jonathan Mcneill	officer: See Remarks	C/O DYNE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 830 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Joshua T Brumm	director, officer: See Remarks	ZELTIQ AESTHETICS INC., 4698 WILLOW ROAD SUITE 100, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Atlas Venture Opportunity Fund I, L.p.	10 percent owner	400 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, 10TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Atlas Venture Fund Xi, L.p.	10 percent owner	400 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, 10TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Atlas Venture Associates Opportunity Ii, Lp	10 percent owner	300 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, 8TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Atlas Venture Opportunity Fund Ii, L.p.	10 percent owner	300 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, 8TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Atlas Venture Associates Opportunity Ii, Llc	10 percent owner	300 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, 8TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Romesh Subramanian	10 percent owner, officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O DYNE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 830 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451