DZS (DZSI) Predictability Rank

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What is DZS Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

DZS Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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DZS (DZSI) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » DZS Inc (NAS:DZSI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

TLFP:Germany

Address

5700 Tennyson Parkway, Suite 400, Plano, TX, USA, 75024

Website

https://www.dzsi.com

DZS Inc is a broad-based network access solutions provider. It designs, develops and manufactures communications network equipment for telecommunications operators and enterprises. The firm provides solutions in five major product areas: broadband access, mobile backhaul, Ethernet switching, passive optical LAN and software-defined networks. It also offers customer premise equipment, network management, cabinets, and channel bank. Its primary geographic markets are the Americas; Europe, Middle East, Africa, and Asia.

Executives

Gunter Reiss	officer: Chief Customer Officer, AEMEA	2300 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Justin K. Ferguson	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O DZS INC., 5700 TENNYSON PARKWAY SUITE 400, PLANO TX 75024
Charles D Vogt	director, officer: President & CEO	TEKELEC, 26580 WEST AGOURA ROAD, CALABASAS CA 91302
Misty Dawn Kawecki	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O DZS INC., 7500 TENNYSON PARKWAY, PLANO TX 75024
Barbara Carbone	director	120 BROADWAY, SUITE 200, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Min Woo Nam	director	C/O ZHONE TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 7195 OAKPORT STREET, OAKLAND CA 94621
David R Schopp	director	C/O DASAN ZHONE SOLUTIONS, INC., 7195 OAKPORT ST., OAKLAND CA 94621
Choon Yul Yoo	director	C/O DASAN ZHONE SOLUTIONS, INC., 7195 OAKPORT ST., OAKLAND CA 94621
Joon Kyung Kim	director	3200 WILSHIRE BLVD STE 1400, LOS ANGELES CA 90010
Matthew W Bross	director	C/O 4 TECHNOLOGY PARK DRIVE, WESTFORD MA 01886
Norman L Foust	officer: SVP of Global Supply Chain	C/O CYAN, INC., 1383 N. MCDOWELL BLVD., SUITE 300, PETALUMA CA 94954
Miguel Alonso	officer: Chief Product Officer	5700 TENNYSON PARKWAY, SUITE 400, PLANO TX 75024
Thomas Arthur Carter	officer: Chief Customer Officer, AEMEA	5700 TENNYSON PARKWAY, SUITE 400, PLANO TX 75024
Deok Yeon Won	officer: Chief Customer Officer, Asia	5700 TENNYSON PARKWAY, SUITE 400, PLANO TX 75024
Dasan Networks, Inc	10 percent owner	DASAN TOWER, 49, DAEWANGPANGYO-RO, 644 BEON-GIL, BUNDANG-GU, SEONGNAM-SI GYEONGGI-DO M5 13493