What is Ecolab Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Ecolab Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Ecolab Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1 Ecolab Place, Saint Paul, MN, USA, 55102
Ecolab produces and markets cleaning and sanitation products for the industrial manufacturing, hospitality, healthcare, and life sciences markets. The firm is the global market share leader in this category with a wide array of products and services, including dish and laundry washing systems, pest control, and infection control products. Additionally, Ecolab sells customized water management solutions across its end markets. The company has a strong hold on the US market and is growing its presence abroad.
Executives
| Gates William H Iii |
10 percent owner |
2365 CARILLON POINT, KIRKLAND WA 98033 |
| De Boo Alexander A. |
officer: EVP & PRES - GLOBAL MARKETS |
1 ECOLAB PLACE, SAINT PAUL MN 55102 |
| Arthur J Higgins |
director |
C/O ZIMMER, INC., P.O. BOX 708, WARSAW IN 46580 |
| Christophe Beck |
officer: Executive V.P., Instit. NA |
370 WABASHA STREET NORTH, SAINT PAUL MN 55102 |
| Victoria Reich |
director |
UNITED STATIONERS SUPPLY CO, ONE PARKWAY NORTH BLVD SUITE 100, LAKE FOREST IL 60045 |
| Gregory B Cook |
officer: EVP & PRES - INST GROUP |
1 ECOLAB PLACE, SAINT PAUL MN 55102 |
| Nicholas J. Alfano |
officer: EVP & PRES - GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL |
1 ECOLAB PLACE, SAINT PAUL MN 55102 |
| Laurie M Marsh |
officer: Senior VP - Human Resources |
1601 W. DIEHL ROAD, NAPERVILLE IL 60563 |
| David Maclennan |
director |
14701 CHARLSON ROAD, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55347 |
| Jennifer J Bradway |
officer: SVP & CORPORATE CONTROLLER |
1 ECOLAB PLACE, ST. PAUL MN 55102 |
| Angela M Busch |
officer: SVP - Corporate Development |
1 ECOLAB PLACE, SAINT PAUL MN 55102 |
| Nicolas A Granucci |
officer: EVP & PRES - GLOBAL PEST |
1 ECOLAB PLACE, SAINT PAUL MN 55102 |
| Larry L Berger |
officer: Chief Technical Officer & SVP |
1 ECOLAB PLACE, SAINT PAUL MN 55102 |
| Gail Peterson |
officer: SVP - Global Mktg & Comms |
1 ECOLAB PLACE, SAINT PAUL MN 55102 |
| Eric Mark Green |
director |
530 HERMAN O. WEST DRIVE, EXTON PA 19341 |
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