ECVT (Ecovyst) Predictability Rank

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What is Ecovyst Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ecovyst Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Ecovyst Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Ecovyst Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Ecovyst Inc (NYSE:ECVT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

300 Lindenwood Drive, Valleybrooke Corporate Center, Malvern, PA, USA, 19355-1740

Website

https://www.ecovyst.com

Ecovyst Inc is an integrated and provider of materials, specialty catalysts and services. Its products contribute to lower emissions and cleaner air, higher fuel efficiency and cleaner fuels, and key enablers to advance transition to clean energy. The company has two reporting segments: (1) Ecoservices and (2) Advanced Materials & Catalysts. Ecoservices provides sulfuric acid recycling to the North American refining industry for the production of alkylate and provides on-purpose virgin sulfuric acid for water treatment, mining, and industrial applications. Maximum revenue is generated from Ecoservices segment.

Executives

Paul Whittleston	officer: See Remarks	C/O ECOVYST INC., 300 LINDENWOOD DRIVE, MALVERN PA 19355
Michael Feehan	officer: See Remarks	C/O PQ GROUP HOLDINGS INC., 300 LINDENWOOD DRIVE, MALVERN PA 19355
Joseph S. Koscinski	officer: See Remarks	C/O PQ GROUP HOLDINGS INC., 300 LINDENWOOD DRIVE, MALVERN PA 19355
Kurt Bitting	officer: See Remarks	C/O PQ GROUP HOLDINGS INC., 300 LINDENWOOD DRIVE, MALVERN PA 19355
Susan F Ward	director	11465 JOHNS CREEK PARKWAY, SUITE 400, JOHNS CREEK GA 30097
Ineos Ltd	10 percent owner	38 HANS CRESCENT, KNIGHTSBRIDGE, LONDON X0 SW1X 0LZ
Ccmp Capital, Lp	10 percent owner	245 PARK AVENUE, 16TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10167
Kyle D Vann	director	11 HEPPLEWHITE WAY, THE WOODLANDS TX 77382
Jonny Ginns	director	C/O PQ GROUP HOLDINGS INC., 300 LINDENWOOD DRIVE, MALVERN PA 19355
Robert Coxon	director	C/O PQ GROUP HOLDINGS INC., 300 LINDENWOOD DRIVE, MALVERN PA 19355
Vann George L. Jr.	officer: See Remarks	C/O ECOVYST INC., 300 LINDENWOOD DRIVE, MALVERN PA 19355
Thomas Schneberger	officer: See Remarks	C/O FMC CORP, 2929 WALNUT STREET, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104
Sichko William J. Jr.	officer: See Remarks	C/O PQ GROUP HOLDINGS INC., 300 LINDENWOOD DRIVE, MALVERN PA 19355
Anna C Catalano	director	1313 NORTH MARKET STREET, WILMINGTON DE 19894
David A. Bradley	director	15710 JOHN F. KENNDEY BLVD, SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77032