Virtus Stone Harbor Emerging Marketsome Fund (Virtus Stone Harbor Emerging Marketsome Fund) Predictability Rank

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What is Virtus Stone Harbor Emerging Marketsome Fund Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Virtus Stone Harbor Emerging Marketsome Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Virtus Stone Harbor Emerging Marketsome Fund (Virtus Stone Harbor Emerging Marketsome Fund) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Virtus Stone Harbor Emerging Markets Income Fund (NYSE:EDF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

101 Munson Street, Greenfield, MA, USA, 01301-9683

Website

https://www.virtus.com

Virtus Stone Harbor Emerging Markets Income Fund is a closed-end management investment company. Its investment objective is to maximize total return, which consists of income from its investments and capital appreciation. The Fund invests in fixed income securities and other instruments.

Executives

Brian T Zino	director	100 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Donald C Burke	director	C/O BLACKROCK FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, INC., 40 EAST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10022
John R Mallin	director	C/O VIRTUS INVESTMENT PARTNERS, INC., ONE FINANCIAL PLAZA, 26TH FL., HARTFORD CT 06103
Mcdaniel Connie D	director	C/O VIRTUS INVESTMENT PARTNERS, INC., ONE FINANCIAL PLAZA, 26TH FL., HARTFORD CT 06103
Richard W Smirl	officer: EVP	C/O VIRTUS INVESTMENT PARTNERS, INC., ONE FINANCIAL PLAZA, HARTFORD CT 06103
F Ford Drummond	director	100 N BROADWAY, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73102
George R Aylward	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O VIRTUS INVESTMENT PARTNERS, INC., 100 PEARL STREET, HARTFORD CT 06103
Bradley William Patrick Iii	officer: EVP, CFO and Treasurer	C/O VIRTUS INVESTMENT PARTNERS, INC., 56 PROSPECT STREET, HARTFORD CT 06115
Sidney E Harris	director	C/O VIRTUS INVESTMENT PARTNERS, INC., ONE FINANCIAL PLAZA, 26TH FL., HARTFORD CT 06103
R Keith Walton	director	100 PEARL STREET, HARTFORD CT 06103
Geraldine M Mcnamara	director	150 EAST 44TH ST, APT 35G, NEW YORK NY 10017
Philip R Mcloughlin	director	800 SCUDDERS HILL ROAD, PLAINSBORO NJ 08536
Deborah A Decotis	director	1633 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10019
Sarah E Cogan	director	1633 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10019
Heath B Mclendon	other: Trustee