What is Electro-Sensors Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Electro-Sensors Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Electro-Sensors Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
6111 Blue Circle Drive, Minnetonka, MN, USA, 55343-9108
Electro-Sensors Inc is engaged in manufacturing and selling a variety of monitoring systems that measure actual machine production and operation rates, as well as systems that regulate the speed of related machines in production processes. Its speed monitoring systems compare revolutions per minute or speed against acceptable rates as determined by a customer. It also includes a line of products that measure production counts or rates, such as parts, gallons, or board feet, alarm systems, tachometers, and other devices that translate impulses from the sensors into alarm signals, computer inputs, or digital displays that are usable by the customer.
Executives
| Patricia Nancy Peterson |
10 percent owner |
6005 ERIN TERRACE, EDINA MN 55439 |
| Paul Rodney Peterson |
10 percent owner |
227 CEDAR DRIVE WEST, HUDSON WI 54016 |
| John Eberhart Peterson |
10 percent owner |
815 BUTTONBUSH LANE, NAPLES FL 34108 |
| Michael C. Zipoy |
director |
6111 BLUE CIRCLE DR, MINNETONKA MN 55343 |
| Lynne Elizabeth Peterson |
10 percent owner |
10254 NOTTINGHAM TRAIL, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55347 |
| Estate Of Nancy P. Peterson |
10 percent owner |
C/O 15708 WOODKNOLL LANE, MINNETONKA MN 55345 |
| Michael Hochman |
officer: VP of Casino Card Operations |
1100 CANTERBURY ROAD, SHAKOPEE MN 55379 |
| Nancy P. Peterson |
10 percent owner |
905 MAIN STREET, HOPKINS MN 55343 |
| Nicholas John Swenson |
10 percent owner |
5000 WEST 36TH STREET, SUITE 130, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55416 |
| Scott A. Gabbard |
director |
6111 BLUE CIRCLE DRIVE, MINNETONKA MN 55343 |
| David L Klenk |
director |
6111 BLUE CIRCLE DRIVE, MINNETONKA MN 55343 |
| Robert W Heller |
director |
10992 MOUNT CURVE ROAD, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55347 |
| Jeffrey Dean Peterson |
director |
15708 WOODKNOLL LANE, MINNETONKA MN 55345 |
| Geoffrey W Miller |
director |
12735 42ND PLACE N, PLAYMOUTH MN 55442-2350 |
| John S Strom |
director |
|
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