GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » ESH Acquisition Corp (NAS:ESHA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

ESH Acquisition (ESH Acquisition) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 2023. Start your Free Trial

What is ESH Acquisition Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ESH Acquisition Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

ESH Acquisition Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of ESH Acquisition's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

ESH Acquisition (ESH Acquisition) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » ESH Acquisition Corp (NAS:ESHA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
ROSS NSTD KRNL WNNR IRAA NSTC MBAC TLGY PACI LHC PBAJ SVMB SCRM CVII AAC GHIX ALCC AACT DWAC SAGA
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
228 Park Avenue S, Suite 89898, New York, NY, USA, 10003-1502
Website
ESH Acquisition Corp is a newly organized blank check company.
Executives
James L Francis director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer 1997 ANNAPOLIS EXCHANGE PARKWAY, SUITE 410, ANNAPOLIS MD 21401
Jonathan D Morris director, officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O IMAGEWARE SYSTEMS, INC., 13500 EVENING CREEK DRIVE N SUITE 550, SAN DIEGO CA 92128
Allen R Weiss director C/O DICK'S SPORTING GOODS, INC., 345 COURT STREET, CORAOPOLIS PA 15108
Christina M Francis director 104 COLEMAN BOULEVARD, SAVANNAH GA 31408
Thomas Wolber director 1724 WINDERMERE DOWNS PL, WINDERMERE FL 34786
Christopher Homer Ackerley director 1840 BROADMOOR DR E, SEATTLE WA 98112
Jonathan Gordon director 270 LAFAYETTER STREET, SUITE 810, NEW YORK NY 10012

ESH Acquisition (ESH Acquisition) Headlines

From GuruFocus

ESH Acquisition Corp. Announces Upcoming Automatic Unit Separation

By Marketwired • 07-20-2023

ESH Acquisition Corp. Announces Closing of Initial Public Offering

By Marketwired • 06-28-2023