Escalon Medical (Escalon Medical) Predictability Rank

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What is Escalon Medical Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Escalon Medical Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Escalon Medical Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Escalon Medical (Escalon Medical) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Escalon Medical Corp (OTCPK:ESMC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

435 Devon Park Drive, Suite 824, Wayne, PA, USA, 19087

Website

https://www.escalonmedical.com

Escalon Medical Corp operates in the healthcare market specializing in the development, manufacture, marketing, and distribution of medical devices and pharmaceuticals in the area of ophthalmology. Its products are A-Scans, B-Scans, UBM, Pachymeters, Color/Fluorescein Angiography Digital Imaging Systems, Ispan Intraocular Gases, Surgical Packs, Viscous Fluid Transfer Systems, and AXIS Image Management. Substantial revenue is generated from the domestic sales of products.

Executives

David James Jacovini	director	120 PINE STREET, PHILADELPHIA PA 19106
John Dogum	director	1818 MARKET STREET, 35TH FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Richard J Depiano	director	435 DEVON PARK DRIVE, SUITE 100, WAYNE PA 19087
Lisa A Napolitano	director	351 EAST CONESTOGA ROAD, WAYNE PA 19087
C Sean Closkey	director	1700 MARKET STREET, 19TH FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
C Todd Trusk	director	1410 RUSSELL ROAD, SUITE 100, WAYNE PA 19301
Robert Michael O'connor	officer: Chief Financial Officer	53 SORREL RUN, MT. LAUREL NJ 08054
Anthony J Coppola	director	1 NORTH NEW YORK ROAD, SMITHVILLE NJ 08205
Federman Jay L Md	director	501 N. ESSEX AVENUE, NARBERTH PA 19072
Kwan William L G	director	351 EAST CONESTOGA ROAD, WAYNE PA 19087
Mark Wallace	officer: Chief Operating Officer	565 E SWEDESFORD ROAD, STE 200, WAYNE PA 19087
Fred G Choate	director	601 DELSEA DRIVE, WASHINGTON TOWNSHIP NJ 08080
Depiano Richard J Jr	officer: President	575 E. SWEDESFORD ROAD, SUITE 100, WAYNE PA 19087
Berkowitz David	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	565 EAST SWEDESFORD ROAD, SUITE 200, WAYNE PA 19087
Mark H Karsch	officer: CFO	565 EAST SWEDESFORD ROAD, SUITE 200, WAYNE PA 19087

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