ESOA (Energy Services of America) Predictability Rank

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What is Energy Services of America Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Energy Services of America Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Energy Services of America Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » Energy Services of America Corp (NAS:ESOA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

75 West 3rd Avenue, Huntington, WV, USA, 25701

Website

https://www.energyservicesofamerica.com

Energy Services of America Corporation is engaged in providing contracting services for energy-related companies. The company is predominantly engaged in the construction, replacement, and repair of natural gas pipelines and storage facilities for utility companies and private natural gas companies. It services the gas, petroleum, power, chemical, and automotive industries and does incidental work such as water and sewer projects. Energy Service's other services include liquid pipeline construction, pump station construction, production facility construction, water and sewer pipeline installations, various maintenance and repair services, and other services related to pipeline construction.

Executives

Charles P. Crimmel	officer: Chief Financial Officer	75 WEST 3RD AVENUE, HUNTINGTON WV 25701
Patrick J Farrell	director	75 WEST 3RD AVENUE, HUNTINGTON WV 25701
Mark Prince	director	75 WEST 3RD AVENUE, HUNTINGTON WV 25701
Marshall T Reynolds	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman, CEO and Secretary	2450 FIRST AVENUE, HUNTINGTON WV 25704
Frank S Lucente	director	75 WEST 3RD AVENUE, HUNTINGTON WV 25701
Jack M Reynolds	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CFO	2450 FIRST AVENUE, HUNTINGTON WV 25703
Samuel G Kapourales	director	C/O ENERGY SERVICES OF AMERICA CORP., 75 WEST 3RD AVE., HUNTINGTON WV 25701
Joseph L Williams	director	2450 FIRST AVENUE, HUNTINGTON WV 25703
Douglas V Reynolds	10 percent owner	900 OLD FREEPORT ROAD, PITTSBURGH PA 15238
Brian Pratt	10 percent owner	5950 BERKSHIRE LANE, SUITE 800, DALLAS TX 75225
Amy E Abraham	director	75 WEST 3RD AVENUE, HUNTINGTON WV 25701
Riddle Robert Neil Jr	officer: Chief Operating Officer	75 WEST 3RD AVENUE, HUNTINGTON WV 25701
Bruce H. Elliott	director	100 INDUSTRIAL LANE, HUNTINGTON WV 25702
Daniel Mannes	director	75 WEST 3RD AVENUE, HUNTINGTON WV 25701
Keith F Molihan	director	533 TOWNSHIP RAOD 1185, IRONTON OH 45638