EverQuote (EverQuote) Predictability Rank

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What is EverQuote Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

EverQuote Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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EverQuote (EverQuote) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Interactive Media » EverQuote Inc (NAS:EVER) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

EVER:Mexico

Address

210 Broadway, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02139

Website

https://www.everquote.com

EverQuote Inc is engaged in the business activity of offering an online marketplace for insurance shopping. The online marketplace offers consumers to find relevant insurance quotes based on car insurance, home insurance, and life insurance. The platform of the company is driven by data science. The firm's data and technology platform match and connects consumers seeking to purchase insurance with relevant options from its broad direct network of insurance providers. It derives a majority of revenue from Direct channels.

Executives

Joseph Sanborn	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O EVERQUOTE, INC., 210 BROADWAY, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
David Brainard	officer: Chief Technology Officer	201 BROADWAY, SUITE 401, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Jon Ayotte	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O EVERQUOTE, INC., 210 BROADWAY, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Paul F Deninger	director	C/O JEFFERIES & CO., 1050 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Jayme Mendal	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	210 BROADWAY, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Darryl Auguste	officer: See Remarks	210 BROADWAY, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
John L. Shields	director	210 BROADWAY, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
John Brandon Wagner	officer: See Remarks	210 BROADWAY, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Julia Brncic	officer: General Counsel	210 BROADWAY, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
David W Mason	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	210 BROADWAY, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Nicholas Graham	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	210 BROADWAY, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Tomas Jr Revesz	officer: Chief Technology Officer	210 BROADWAY, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
David B Blundin	director, 10 percent owner	C/O MICROSTRATEGY INC, 1861 INTERNATIONAL DR, MCLEAN VA 22102
George R Neble	director	210 BROADWAY, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Elyse Neumeier	officer: Chief People Officer	210 BROADWAY, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139