EVEX (Eve Holding) Predictability Rank

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What is Eve Holding Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Eve Holding Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Eve Holding Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Eve Holding Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Aerospace & Defense » Eve Holding Inc (NYSE:EVEX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

PL LUNR CDRE ATRO DCO EH RDW RGR NPK VVX GE RTX XPAR:AIR BA XPAR:SAF LMT LSE:RR. TDG NOC GD

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1400 General Aviation Drive, Melbourne, FL, USA, 32935

Website

https://www.eveairmobility.com

Eve Holding Inc is a provider of Urban Air Mobility solutions. The company's operating segments are; eVTOL that includes; the design and production of electric vertical take-off and landing vehicles (eVTOLs) including fixed wing and helicopter operators, as well as lessors that purchase and manage aircraft on behalf of operators; Service and Operations Solutions segment which includes a portfolio of maintenance and support services focused on its and third-party eVTOLs; and the UATM segment , a new Urban Air Traffic Management system designed to allow eVTOLs to operate safely and efficiently in dense urban airspace alongside conventional aircraft and drones.

Executives

Johann Bordais	officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O EVE MOBILITY, 4001 KENNETT PIKE, SUITE 302, WILMINGTON DE 19807
Maria Cordon	director	C/O EVE HOLDING, INC., 1400 GENERAL AVIATION DRIVE, MELBOURNE FL 32395
Paul Eremenko	director	C/O EMBRAER AIRCRAFT HOLDING, INC., 276 SOUTHWEST 34TH STREET, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33315
Entrecanales Domecq Jose Manuel	director	C/O EMBRAER AIRCRAFT HOLDING, INC., 276 SOUTHWEST 34TH STREET, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33315
Luis Carlos Affonso	director	C/O EMBRAER AIRCRAFT HOLDING, INC., 276 SOUTHWEST 34TH STREET, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33315
Embraer Aircraft Holding, Inc.	director, 10 percent owner	276 SOUTHWEST 34TH STREET, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33315
Michael Amalfitano	director	C/O EMBRAER AIRCRAFT HOLDING, INC., 276 SOUTHWEST 34TH STREET, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33315
Marion C Blakey	director	C/O ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188
Eduardo Siffert Couto	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O EMBRAER AIRCRAFT HOLDING, INC., 276 SOUTHWEST 34TH STREET, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33315
Andre Duarte Stein	officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer	C/O EMBRAER AIRCRAFT HOLDING, INC., 276 SOUTHWEST 34TH STREET, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33315
S.a. Embraer	director, 10 percent owner	AV. BRIGADEIRO FARIA LIMA 2170, SAO JOSE DOS CAMPOS D5 12227901
Sergio Pedreiro	director	2 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10016
Patrick M Shanahan	director	C/O RESILIENCE CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC, 25101 CHAGRIN BLVD 350, BEACHWOOD OH 44122
Triple8, Llc	10 percent owner	ONE SECURITY BENEFIT PLACE, TOPEKA KS 66636
Eldridge Industries, Llc	10 percent owner	600 STEAMBOAT ROAD, GREENWICH CT 06830