FalconStor Software (FalconStor Software) Predictability Rank

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What is FalconStor Software Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

FalconStor Software Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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FalconStor Software (FalconStor Software) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » FalconStor Software Inc (OTCPK:FALC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

501 Congress Avenue, Suite 150, Austin, TX, USA, 78701

Website

https://www.falconstor.com

FalconStor Software Inc operates in the trusted data protection software industry. The company enables enterprise customers and managed service providers to secure, migrate, and protect their data while reducing data storage and long-term retention costs. The products are offered through and supported by a worldwide network of managed service providers, systems integrators, resellers, and original equipment manufacturers. It's software products create investment protection, flexibility, and leverage of modern cloud-based technologies, through software-defined functionality that provides backup and long-term retention, and business continuity driven data replication. The company's geographical markets are the Americas, Asia Pacific, Europe, Middle East, Africa and Others.

Executives

Robert Todd Brooks	officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O NOVATION COMPANIES, INC., 2 HUNTINGTON QUADRANGLE, SUITE 2S01, MELVILLE NY 11747
Vincent Sita	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O FALCONSTOR SOFTWARE, INC., 701 BRAZOS STREET, SUITE 400, AUSTIN TX 78701
Michael P Kelly	director
Brad Wolfe	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O FALCONSTOR SOFTWARE, INC., 701 BRAZOS STREET, SUITE 400, AUSTIN TX 78701
Hcp-fva, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	17 STATE STREET, SUITE 3230, NEW YORK NY 10004
Esw Capital, Llc	10 percent owner	401 CONGRESS AVENUE, SUITE 2650, AUSTIN TX 78701
Joseph Liemandt	10 percent owner	5001 PLAZA ON THE LAKE, AUSTIN TX 78746
Patrick Mcclain	officer: EVP, CFO & Treasurer	C/O FALCONSTOR SOFTWARE, INC., 2 HUNTINGTON QUADRANGLE, SUITE 2S01, MELVILLE NY 11747
Todd Oseth	officer: CEO & President	C/O MCDATA CORPORATION, 380 INTERLOCKEN CRESCENT, BROOMFIELD CO 80021
William D Miller	director
Barry Rudolph	director	1351 S SUNSET STREET, LONGMONT CO 80501
Daniel Murale	officer: VP of Finance & Interim CFO	C/O FALCONSTOR SOFTWARE, INC., 2 HUNTINGTON QUADRANGLE, SUITE 2S01, MELVILLE NY 11747
Gary Quinn	officer: COO and EVP	C/O COMPUTER ASSOCIATES INTER INC, ONE COMPUTER ASSOC PLAZA, ISLANDIA NY 11749
Alan Komet	officer: EVP Worldwide Field Operations	2 HUNTINGTON QUADRANGLE, MELVILLE NY 11747
Hale Martin M Jr	director, 10 percent owner