FB Financial (FB Financial) Predictability Rank

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What is FB Financial Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

FB Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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FB Financial (FB Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » FB Financial Corp (NYSE:FBK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2J2:Germany

Address

211 Commerce Street, Suite 300, Nashville, TN, USA, 37201

Website

https://www.firstbankonline.com

FB Financial Corp is a bank holding company. The company through its wholly-owned bank subsidiary provides commercial and consumer banking services to clients in select markets in Tennessee, North Alabama, and North Georgia. The company segment includes Banking and Mortgage. It generates revenue from the Banking segment which provides a full range of deposit and lending products and services to corporate, commercial, and consumer customers. The Mortgage segment includes the servicing of residential mortgage loans and the packaging and securitization of loans to governmental agencies.

Executives

James W. Ayers	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman	C/O FB FINANCIAL CORPORATION, 211 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 300, NASHVILLE TN 37201
Mark Hickman	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	1221 BROADWAY, SUITE 1300, NASHVILLE TN 37203
Carpenter William F Iii	director	C/O FB FINANCIAL CORP, 211 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 300, NASHVILLE TN 37201
Ingram Orrin H Ii	director	C/O FB FNIANCIAL CORPORATION, 1221 BROADWAY, SUITE 1300, NASHVILLE TN 37203
Jonathan Wade Pennington	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O FB FINANCIAL CORP, 211 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 300, NASHVILLE TN 37201
Raja J. Jubran	director	211 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 300, NASHVILLE TN 37201
Cross James W Iv	director	FRANKLIN FINANCIAL CORP, 230 PUBLIC SQUARE, FRANKLIN TN 37064
James Gregory Bowers	officer: Chief Credit Officer	C/O FB FINANCIAL CORP, 211 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 300, NASHVILLE TN 37201
Wilburn J. Evans	officer: President FirstBank Ventures	C/O FB FINANCIAL CORPORATION, 211 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 300, NASHVILLE TN 37201
Agenia Clark	director	C/O FB FINANCIAL CORPORATION, 1221 BROADWAY, SUITE 1300, NASHVILLE TN 37203
Charles Wright Pinson	director	C/O FB FINANCIAL CORPORATION, 1221 BROADWAY, SUITE 1300, NASHVILLE TN 37203
Aimee T Hamilton	officer: Chief Risk Officer	2800 POST OAK BOULEVARD, SUITE 100, HOUSTON TX 77056
Keith S Rainwater	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	C/O SCBT FINANCIAL CORPORATION, 520 GERVAIS STREET, COLUMBIA SC 29201
Timothy L. Johnson	officer: Chief Risk Officer	C/O FB FINANCIAL CORPORATION, 211 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 300, NASHVILLE TN 37201
Beth W Sims	officer: General Counsel and Corp. Sec.	211 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 300, NASHVILLE TN 37201