FBYD (Falcons Beyond Global) Predictability Rank

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What is Falcons Beyond Global Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Falcons Beyond Global Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Falcons Beyond Global Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Conglomerates » Falcons Beyond Global Inc (NAS:FBYD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1768 Park Center Drive, Orlando, FL, USA, 32835

Website

https://www.falconsbeyondglobal.com

Falcons Beyond Global Inc. is a Company that provides a full range of theme park design, master planning, and experiential technologies for customers in the entertainment and attraction industry through its Falcon's Creative Group reportable segment and develops and co-owns resort and theme park attractions through its Destinations Operations. The Company has four operating segments, Falcon's Creative Group, PDP, Falcon's Beyond Brands, and Destinations Operations, all of which are reportable segments. It earns the majority of the revenue from Falcon's Creative Group segment.

Executives

Ramin Arani	director	C/O LIVEXLIVE MEDIA, INC, 920 SUNSET BOULEVARD, SUITE #1201, WEST HOLLYWOOD CA 90069
Sandy Beall	director	3 MINETTA STREET, NEW YORK NY 10012
William Douglas Jacob	director	3 MINETTA STREET, NEW YORK NY 10012
L Scott Demerau	director, officer: Exe. Chairman of the Board	5895 WINDWARD PKWY, STE 220, ALPHARETTA GA 30202
Simon J Philips	director, officer: President	MARVEL ENTERTAINMENT INTERNATIONAL LTD, 54 GREAT MARLBOROUGH STREET, LONDON X0 W1F 7JU
Yvette Whittaker	officer: Chief Corporate Officer	FALCONS BEYOND GLOBAL, INC., 6996 PIAZZA GRANDE AVENUE, SUITE 301, ORLANDO FL 32835
Joanne Merrill	officer: Chief Financial Officer	FALCONS BEYOND GLOBAL, INC., 6996 PIAZZA GRANDE AVENUE, SUITE 301, ORLANDO FL 32835
Cecil D. Magpuri	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	FALCONS BEYOND GLOBAL, INC., 6996 PIAZZA GRANDE AVENUE, SUITE 301, ORLANDO FL 32835
David Michael Schaefer	officer: Chief Development Officer	FALCONS BEYOND GLOBAL, INC., 6996 PIAZZA GRANDE AVENUE, SUITE 301, ORLANDO FL 32835
Infinite Acquisitions Partners Llc	10 percent owner	3420 PUMP RD. #127, HENRICO VA 23233
Bruce A. Brown	officer: EVP, GC & Corporate Secretary	FALCONS BEYOND GLOBAL, INC., 6996 PIAZZA GRANDE AVENUE, SUITE 301, ORLANDO FL 32835
Garrett Schreiber	10 percent owner	3 MINETTA STREET, NEW YORK NY 10012
Fast Sponsor Ii Llc	10 percent owner	109 OLD BRANCHVILLE ROAD, RIDGEFIELD CT 06877
Fast Sponsor Ii Manager Llc	10 percent owner	109 OLD BRANCHVILLE ROAD, RIDGEFIELD CT 06877