FEMY (Femasys) Predictability Rank

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What is Femasys Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Femasys Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Femasys Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Femasys Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Femasys Inc (NAS:FEMY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3950 Johns Creek Court, Suite 100, Suwanee, GA, USA, 30024

Website

https://www.femasys.com

Femasys Inc is a biomedical company focused on transforming women's healthcare by developing solutions and advancements providing clinical impact to address severely underserved areas. The company's mission is to provide women with minimally invasive, non-surgical product technologies, accessible in the office, improving patient care and overall health economics. Its product portfolio includes FemaSeed Intratubal Insemination, an infertility treatment; FemVue, a companion diagnostic for fallopian tube assessment via ultrasound; FemBloc, a clinical product candidate being developed as a permanent birth control; FemCerv, a tissue sampler for cervical cancer diagnosis; and FemCath and FemChec. Geographically, it derives key revenue from the United States and rest from international markets.

Executives

Keith J Kendall	director	30 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, WARREN NJ 07059
Alistair Milnes	director	C/O BICYCLE THERAPEUTICS PLC, B900, BABRAHAM RESEARCH CAMPUS, CAMBRIDGE X0 CB22 3AT
Christine E Thomas	officer: SVP, Regulatory & Clinical	2836 SW 117TH STREET, GAINESVILLE FL 32606
Dov Elefant	officer: Chief Financial Officer	EPICEPT CORPORATION, 270 SYLVAN AVENUE, ENGLEWOOD CLIFFS NJ 07632
Wendy Perrow	director	C/O BIOANALYTICAL SYSTEMS, INC., 2701 KENT AVENUE, WEST LAFAYETTE IN 47906
Edward Evantash	officer: Chief Medical Officer	3950 JOHNS CREEK COURT, SUITE 100, SUWANEE GA 30024
John Dyett	director, 10 percent owner	11111 SANTA MONICA BLVD., SUITE 2250, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Adams John Q Jr	director	35 WYCK HILL LANE, WESTLAKE TX 76262
Edward R Uzialko	director, 10 percent owner	4605 DUDLEY LANE, ATLANTA GA 30327
Charles Larsen	director	28 SANDPIPER ROAD, TAMPA FL 33609
Kathy Lee-sepsick	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	3950 JOHNS CREEK COURT, SUITE 100, SUWANEE GA 30024
Daniel Scott Currie	officer: Senior VP, Operations	3950 JOHNS CREEK COURT, SUITE 100, SUWANEE GA 30024
Kelley Hoskin Violet Alexandria	officer: VP, Clinical & Medical Affairs	3950 JOHNS CREEK COURT, SUITE 100, SUWANEE GA 30024
Gary Thompson	director	3950 JOHNS CREEK COURT, SUITE 100, SUWANEE GA 30024
William Benson Witte	director	11111 SANTA MONICA BLVD., SUITE 2250, LOS ANGELES CA 90025