FF (FutureFuel) Predictability Rank

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What is FutureFuel Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

FutureFuel Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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FutureFuel Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » FutureFuel Corp (NYSE:FF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

3FF:Germany

Address

8235 Forsyth Boulevard, Suite 400, Saint Louis, MO, USA, 63105

Website

https://www.futurefuelcorporation.com

FutureFuel Corp makes and sells diversified chemical products, bio-based fuel products, and specialty chemical products. The company is organized into two segments based on product type: biofuels and chemicals. The biofuel segment sells biodiesel and other petroleum products. Its fuels are made from a mix of diesel, vegetable oils, and grease feedstock. The chemicals segment sells products that are used in the production of agricultural chemicals, which include herbicides, coatings, and cleaning products, such as detergents.

Executives

Donald C. Bedell	director	731 N. MAIN STREET, SIKESTON MO 63801
Paul Manheim	director	2025 FIRST AVENUE, SUITE 700, SEATTLE WA 98121
Ronald J Kruszewski	director	501 NORTH BROADWAY, ST LOUIS MO 63102
Charles W. Lyon	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	8235 FORSYTH BOULEVARD, SUITE 400, CLAYTON MO 63105
Egger Terrance C Z	director	900 NORTH TUCKER BLVD, ST LOUIS MO 63101
Mckinlay Thomas	officer: Chief Operating Officer	8235 FORSYTH, FOURTH FLOOR, ST. LOUIS MO 63105
Rose Sparks	officer: PFO and Accounting Officer	FUTUREFUEL CHEMICAL COMPANY, 2800 GAP ROAD, BATESVILLE AR 72501
Kyle Gaither	officer: Chief Operations Officer	8235 FORSYTH BOULEVARD, SUITE 400, CLAYTON MO 63105
Novelly Paul Anthony Ii	10 percent owner	C/O ST. ALBANS GLOBAL MANAGEMENT, 8235 FORSYTH BLVD., SUITE 400, ST. LOUIS MO 63105
Apex Holding Co.	10 percent owner	C/O ST. ALBANS GLOBAL MANAGEMENT, 8235 FORSYTH BLVD., SUITE 400, ST. LOUIS MO 63105
Sagm Holdings, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O ST. ALBANS GLOBAL MANAGEMENT, 8235 FORSYTH BLVD., SUITE 400, ST. LOUIS MO 63105
Paul M Flynn	officer: See remarks	8235 FORSYTH BLVD., SUITE 307, ST. LOUIS MO 63105
Dale E Cole	director	1325 HARRISON STREET, BATESVILLE AR 72501
Alain Louvel	director	C/O FUTURE FUEL, 8235 FORSYTH BLVD., SUITE 400, ST. LOUIS MO 63105
Paul A Novelly	director, officer: Exec. Chair. of Board of Dir.	115 S JEFFERSON RD, WHIPPANY NJ 07981