What is Fulgent Genetics Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Fulgent Genetics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Fulgent Genetics (Fulgent Genetics) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
4978 Santa Anita Avenue, Temple City, CA, USA, 91780
Fulgent Genetics Inc is a technology company that focuses on genetic testing to provide physicians with clinically actionable diagnostic information. Genetic testing offers the possibility of early identification of a disease or a genetic predisposition to disease and enhanced disease treatment and prognosis. Fulgent's product portfolio includes Genes & Panels, Known Mutation, Genomic Testing, Hereditary Cancer, Carrier Screening, Tumor Profiling, and Sequencing Service. Its customers are categorized as Insurance; Institutional, which includes hospitals, medical institutions, laboratories, governmental bodies, municipalities, and large corporations; and Patients. The geographical segments are the United States, which generates the vast majority of the revenue; and Foreign.
Executives
| Jian Xie |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
C/O FULGENT GENETICS, INC., 4399 SANTA ANITA AVE, EL MONTE CA 91731 |
| Hanlin Gao |
10 percent owner, officer: Chief Scientific Officer |
4399 SANTA ANITA AVE., EL MONTE CA 91731 |
| Paul Kim |
officer: CFO and Treasurer |
4399 SANTA ANITA AVE, EL MONTE CA 91731 |
| Regina E Groves |
director |
5751 COPLEY DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92111 |
| Leonard E Post |
director |
|
| Michael Nohaile |
director |
C/O BIO AI ACCELERATION COMPANY, 20 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02138 |
| John C Bolger |
director |
4978 SANTA ANITA AVENUE, SUITE 205, TEMPLE CITY CA 91780 |
| Ming Hsieh Trust |
10 percent owner |
4399 SANTA ANITA AVE., EL MONTE CA 91731 |
| Linda Marsh |
director |
100 N. STONEMAN AVE., ROOM 200, ALHAMBRA CA 91801 |
| Ming Hsieh |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO |
4399 SANTA ANITA AVE., EL MONTE CA 91731 |
| Fulgent Genetics, Inc. |
director |
4399 SANTA ANITA AVE, EL MONTE CA 91731 |
| Yun Yen |
director |
1301 OAKLAWN ROAD, ARCADIA CA 91006 |
| James Mulay |
director |
6521 THOROUGHBRED LOOP, ODESSA FL 33556 |
| Xi Long Usa, Inc. |
10 percent owner |
#6 XINRUI RD., SCIENCE CITY, LUOGANG DISTRICT, GUANGZHOU CITY F4 510663 |
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