What is First of Long Island Predictability Rank?
2.5 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
First of Long Island Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
First of Long Island (First of Long Island) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
275 Broadhollow Road, Melville, NY, USA, 11747
First of Long Island Corp is a holding company that provides financial services. It offers services of saving accounts, current accounts, and capital gain accounts. The company also provides lending services, such as commercial and residential mortgage loans, industrial loans, small business credit scored loans, and other credit facilities. In addition, the company provides account reconciliation services, ATM Banking, bill payment, cash management services, mobile banking, online banking, and payroll services to privately owned businesses, professionals, consumers, and public bodies. Revenue earned by the company mainly consists of the interest on loans and investment securities, fees on deposit accounts, and income from investment management.
Executives
| Christopher J Hilton |
officer: Executive Vice President |
C/O SUFFOLK BANCORP, 4 WEST SECOND STREET, PO BOX 9000, RIVERHEAD NY 11901 |
| Tanweer Sheikh Ansari |
officer: EVP, Internal Counsel |
10 GLEN HEAD ROAD, GLEN HEAD NY 11545 |
| Cooper John Abbott Root |
director |
215 EAST 72ND STREET, 7W, NEW YORK NY 10021 |
| Susanne Pheffer |
officer: EVP, Chief Information Officer |
10 GLEN HEAD ROAD, GLEN HEAD NY 11545 |
| Edward J. Haye |
director |
275 BROADHOLLOW ROAD, MELVILLE NY 11747 |
| Paul T Canarick |
director |
|
| Milbrey Rennie Taylor |
director |
C/O THE FIRST OF LONG ISLAND CORPORATION, 10 GLEN HEAD ROAD, GLEN HEAD NY 11545 |
| Teagle Walter C Iii |
director |
|
| Michael J. Spolarich |
officer: EVP, Chief Credit Officer |
10 GLEN HEAD ROAD, GLEN HEAD NY 11545 |
| Christopher Becker |
officer: Vice President |
37 COOPER LANE, EAST HAMPTON NY 11937 |
| Janet T Verneuille |
officer: Executive Vice President |
PO BOX 3005, BRIDGEHAMPTON NY 11932 |
| Alexander L Cover |
director |
|
| Michael N Vittorio |
director, officer: President & CEO |
|
| Jay P Mcconie |
officer: Executive Vice President, CFO |
10 GLEN HEAD ROAD, GLEN HEAD NY 11545 |
| Mark D Curtis |
officer: Sr. Vice President & Treasurer |
|
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
FLIC has been successfully added to your