FLS (Flowserve) Predictability Rank

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What is Flowserve Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Flowserve Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Flowserve Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Flowserve Corp (NYSE:FLS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0IQE:UK FWV:Germany FWV:Germany

Address

5215 North O’Connor Boulevard, Suite 700, Irving, TX, USA, 75039

Website

https://www.flowserve.com

Flowserve Corp is a manufacturer and aftermarket service provider of comprehensive flow control systems. It develops precision-engineered flow control equipment to monitor movement and protect customers' materials and processes. It offers an extensive range of pumps, valves, seals, and services for several industries, including oil and gas, chemical, power generation, and water management. It has three business segments: FPD for custom engineered pumps, pre-configured industrial pumps, pump systems, mechanical seals, auxiliary systems and replacement parts and related services; and FCD for engineered-to-order and configured-to-order isolation values, control valves, valve automation products and related equipment and Eliminations and All Other.

Executives

Robert Scott Rowe	officer: President & CEO	1333 WEST LOOP SOUTH, SUITE 1700, HOUSTON TX 77027
Kirk Wilson	officer: President, AMSS	5215 NORTH O'CONNOR BLVD #2300, IRVING TX 75039
Thomas B Okray	director	5008 AIRPORT ROAD NW, ROANOKE VA 24012
Kenneth I Siegel	director	667 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10065
Susan Claire Hudson	officer: Chief Legal Officer	5215 N O CONNOR BLVD, # 700, IRVING TX 75039
Lamar L. Duhon	officer: President, AMSS	5215 N. O'CONNOR BLVD., SUITE 700, IRVING TX 75039
Tamara Morytko	officer: President, FPD	1250 NE LOOP 410, SUITE 1000, SAN ANTONIO TX 78209
Carlyn R. Taylor	director	5215 N. O'CONNOR BLVD., SUITE 2300, IRVING TX 75039
Scott K Vopni	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	2711 NORTH HASKELL AVENUE, SUITE 3400, DALLAS TX 75204
Sanjay Chowbey	officer: President, AMSS	525 WILLIAM PENN PLACE, SUITE 3300, PITTSBURGH PA 15219
Amy B Schwetz	officer: Chief Financial Officer	701 MARKET STREET, ST. LOUIS MO 63101
Sujeet Chand	director	ROCKWELL AUTOMATION, INC., 1201 SOUTH SECOND STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53204
Lanesha Minnix	officer: SVP, Chief Legal Officer	TWO LAKESIDE COMMONS, BUILDING TWO, 980 HAMMOND DRIVE, SUITE 500, ATLANTA GA 30328
John Lenander	officer: President, FCO	5215 NORTH O'CONNOR BLVD SUITE 2300, IRVING TX 75039
Garrison John L Jr	director	C/O TEREX CORPORATION, 200 NYALA FARM ROAD, WESTPORT CT 06880