FR (First Industrial Realty Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is First Industrial Realty Trust Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

First Industrial Realty Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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First Industrial Realty Trust Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » First Industrial Realty Trust Inc (NYSE:FR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

One North Wacker Drive, Suite 4200, Chicago, IL, USA, 60606

Website

https://www.firstindustrial.com

First Industrial Realty Trust Inc is a real estate investment trust that owns, manages, acquires, sells, develops, and redevelops industrial real estate. Through its fully integrated operating and investing platform, the company provides facilities and customer service to multinational corporations and regional firms that are essential for their supply chains. The company serves a diverse tenant base across various sectors, including e-commerce, logistics, transportation, manufacturing, retail, consumer services, food and beverage, building materials, wholesale goods, health services, and government.

Executives

Scott A Musil	officer: Sen VP, Treas, Controller	ONE NORTH WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 4200, CHICAGO IL 60606
Johannson L Yap	officer: Chief Investment Officer	ONE NORTH WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 4200, CHICAGO IL 60606
Rice Jennifer Matthews	officer: General Counsel	555 EAST LANCASTER AVE, SUITE 100, RADNOR PA 19087
Peter Schultz	officer: SVP - Portfolio Management	ONE NORTH WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 4200, CHICAGO IL 60606
Marcus L. Smith	director	555 17TH STREET, SUITE 3700, DCT INDUSTRIAL TRUST INC., DENVER CO 80202
John Rau	director	MIAMI CORPORATION, 410 N. MICHIGAN AVENUE, ROOM 590, CHICAGO IL 60611
Teresa Bryce Bazemore	director	CHIMERA INVESTMENT CORPORATION, 520 MADISON AVE, 32ND FL, NEW YORK NY 10022
Bruce W Duncan	director, officer: PRESIDENT AND CEO	ONE NORTH WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 4200, CHICAGO IL 60606
Hackett H Patrick Jr	director	ONE NORTH WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 4200, CHICAGO IL 60606
Denise Olsen	director	ONE NORTH WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 4200, CHICAGO IL 60606
David Harker	officer: Exec. Director - Investments	ONE NORTH WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 4200, CHICAGO IL 60606
Peter E. Baccile	director, officer: President	311 SOUTH WACKER DR., SUITE 3900, CHICAGO IL 60605
Matthew Dominski	director	ONE NORTH WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 4200, CHICAGO IL 60606
Leonard Peter Sharpe	director	ONE NORTH WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 4200, CHICAGO IL 60606
Jay H Shidler	director	THE SHIDLER GROUP, 810 RICHARDS STREET SUITE 1000, HONOLULU HI 96813