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SeaCube Container Leasing (FRA:03S) Predictability Rank


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What is SeaCube Container Leasing Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


SeaCube Container Leasing Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

SeaCube Container Leasing Predictability Rank Related Terms

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SeaCube Container Leasing (FRA:03S) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
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SeaCube Container Leasing Ltd was incorporated in Bermuda in March 2010. It is a container leasing company based on total assets. Containers are the primary means by which products are shipped internationally because they facilitate the secure and efficient movement of goods via multiple transportation modes, including ships, rail and trucks. The principal activities of its business include the acquisition, leasing, re-leasing and subsequent sale of refrigerated and dry containers and generator sets. It leases its containers primarily under long-term contracts to a diverse group of the shipping lines. It owns or manages a fleet of 507,013 units, representing 795,039 TEUs of containers and generator sets. It leases three types of assets: Reefers, which are used for perishable items such as fresh and frozen foods; Dry freight containers, which are used for general cargo such as manufactured component parts, consumer staples and apparel; and Gensets, which are diesel generators used to provide mobile power to reefers. The Company's fleet of equipment consists of three types of container assets: refrigerated containers, dry freight containers and generator sets. Refrigerated containers, or reefers, are insulated containers that include an integrated cooling machine. These containers are typically used to carry perishable cargo such as fresh and frozen produce, meat, poultry, fish and other temperature sensitive products. A dry container is essentially a steel box with a set of doors on one end. Dry containers are the least-expensive type of intermodal container and are used to carry most types of freight. Generator sets, or gensets, are portable diesel fueled generators used to power reefers. They can be used when reefers are transported by trucks. It competes with Textainer Group, Florens Group, Triton Container, TAL International and GE Seaco. The Company is subject to federal, state, local and foreign laws and regulations relating to the protection of the environment, including those governing the discharge of pollutants to air and water, the management and disposal of hazardous substances and wastes and the cleanup of contaminated sites.

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