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IntraLinks Holdings (FRA:098) Predictability Rank


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What is IntraLinks Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


IntraLinks Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

IntraLinks Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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IntraLinks Holdings (FRA:098) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
IntraLinks Holdings Inc was incorporated in Delaware as Intralinks, Inc. in June 1996. The Company is a provider of Software-as-a-Service solutions for secure content management and collaboration within and among organizations. Its cloud-based solutions enable organizations to control, track, search and exchange time-sensitive information inside and outside the firewall. Its customers rely on its solutions to manage large amounts of electronic information, accelerate information intensive business processes, reduce time to market, optimize critical information workflow, meet regulatory and risk management requirements and collaborate with business counterparties in a secure, auditable and compliant manner. It helps its customers eliminate many of the inherent risks and inefficiencies of using email, fax, courier services and other existing solutions to collaborate and exchange information. The Company sell their solutions through a mix of field and inside sales, a referral network and a select group of channel partners. The Company delivers its solutions through a cloud-based model, making them available on-demand over the Internet using a multi-tenant SaaS architecture in which a single instance of its software serves all of its customers. The Company has built a secure and scalable, cloud-based, multi-tenant platform upon which it develops solutions that allow customers to collaborate, manage and exchange critical information across organizational and geographic boundaries. It integrates content management, collaboration and social networking software into one platform that supports business collaboration and content exchange. The Intralinks Platform scales from the needs of small groups and individuals within one organization to large teams of people across multiple enterprises, financial institutions and governmental agencies. Its platform helps transform a wide range of slow, expensive and information-intensive tasks into streamlined, efficient and real-time business processes. The Company competes with a multitude of service providers, including both virtual data room providers and enterprise software providers.Its trademarks include Intralinks, Intralinks Connect, Intralinks DealNexus, Intralinks Dealspace, Intralinks Debtspace, Intralinks Fundspace, Intralinks Studyspace, Intralinks VIA.

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