Beijing Beida Jade Bird Universal Sci-Tech Co (FRA:BJDH) Predictability Rank


FRA:BJDH Beijing Beida Jade Bird Universal Sci-Tech Co Ltd FRA:BJDH
55 GF Score
Price €0.07
GF Value €0.08
Valuation Fairly Valued
! 4 Warning Signs
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What is Beijing Beida Jade Bird Universal Sci-Tech Co Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Beijing Beida Jade Bird Universal Sci-Tech Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

FRA:BJDH
55GF Score
Beijing Beida Jade Bird Universal Sci-Tech Co Ltd FRA:BJDH
Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Beijing Beida Jade Bird Universal Sci-Tech Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Is Beijing Beida Jade Bird Universal Sci-Tech Co (FRA:BJDH) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Beijing Beida Jade Bird Universal Sci-Tech Co stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of €0.07 is trading 6.9% below its estimated GF Value™ of €0.08. GuruFocus considers Beijing Beida Jade Bird Universal Sci-Tech Co to be Fairly Valued.

Key valuation signals for FRA:BJDH:

  • Predictability Rank:
  • GF Value™: €0.08 vs. price of €0.07 (6.9% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 55/100 with 4 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the FRA:BJDH stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Beijing Beida Jade Bird Universal Sci-Tech Co Business Description

Other Exchanges 08095:Hong Kong
Address No. 207 Chengfu Road, 3rd Floor, Beida Jade Bird Building, Haidian District, Beijing, CHN, 100871
Beijing Beida Jade Bird Universal Sci-Tech Co Ltd is principally engaged in tourism development business, investment holding of diversified portfolios, trading of metallic products, and sales and production of LED devices. Its segments are Tourism Development, which is engaged in the development of travel and leisure business; Investment Holding segment, which engages in fund, debt, and equity investment, including management fee income; Trading of Metallic Products, which generates maximum revenue and is engaged in the sales and purchases of metallic products; Sales and Production of LED Devices, which engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of high-end ceramic high-power LED devices and modules; and all other segments. It generates maximum revenue from the PRC.
55GF Score

Get the complete analysis for FRA:BJDH

Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

€0.07
Price
€0.08
GF Value