Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Doverddlery Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
Predictables
Non-Predictable
All stocks
Total Number of stocks
570
1833
2403
Total Lost Money
61
830
891
Total Lost More Than 50%
18
412
430
Total Lost More Than 90%
4
86
90
Average Gain
260.6%
100.0%
138.1%
Median Gain
150.0%
13.0%
39.0%
Maximum Gain
2852.0%
11483.0%
11483.0%
Maximum Loss
-100.0%
-100.0%
-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain
12.7%
6.7%
8.4%
Annualized Median Gain
8.9%
1.1%
3.1%
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Doverddlery's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Dover Saddlery, Inc. is a Delaware Corporation. The Company was founded in 1975. It is a specialty retailer and the largest multi-channel marketer of premium, equestrian products in the U.S. The Company sells its products through a multi-channel strategy, including direct and retail. The Company offers a comprehensive selection of products required to own, ride, train and compete with a horse. The Company's equestrian product line includes a broad variety of separate items such as saddles, tack, specialized apparel, footwear, horse clothing, horse health and stable products. The Company has established itself as the largest multi-channel marketer of equestrian tack, specialized apparel, horse care and stable products in the U.S. and plans to continue its multi-channel retail strategy to capitalize on strong brand equity and utilize its customer database. This multi-channel strategy enables it to capture customer data, achieve operational synergies, provide a seamless and convenient shopping experience for its customers, cross market its products and reinforce its brand across channels. As of December 31, 2012, it operated seventeen stores under the Dover Saddlery brand and one store under the Smith Brothers brand. The Company is subject to numerous regulations governing the Internet and e-commerce, retailers generally, the importation, promotion and sale of merchandise, and the operation of retail stores and warehouse facilities.
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