GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP (FRA:KM7) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP (FRA:KM7) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to . Start your Free Trial

What is Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP (FRA:KM7) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP is a Delaware limited partnership formed in August 1992. The Company is engaged in pipeline transportation and energy storage company in North America. They own an interest in or operate approximately 52,000 miles of pipelines and 180 terminals. Its pipelines transport natural gas, refined petroleum products, crude oil, condensate, CO2 and other products, and its terminals store petroleum products, ethanol and chemicals, and handle such products as coal, petroleum coke and steel. They are also the producer and transporter of CO2, for enhanced oil recovery projects in North America. Its operations are conducted through our five operating limited partnerships and their subsidiaries and are grouped into five reportable business segments: Natural Gas Pipelines—consists of approximately 40,000 miles of natural gas transmission pipelines and gathering lines, plus natural gas storage, treating and processing facilities, through which natural gas is gathered, transported, stored, treated, processed and sold; O2—which produces, markets and transports, through approximately 1,500 miles of pipelines, CO2 to oil fields that use CO2 to increase production of oil; owns interests in and/or operate four primary oil fields in West Texas; and owns and operates a 450-mile crude oil pipeline system in West Texas; Products Pipelines—consists of approximately 9,000 miles of refined petroleum products and crude oil and condensate pipelines that deliver refined petroleum products (gasoline, diesel fuel and jet fuel), NGL, crude oil, condensate and bio-fuels to various markets; plus approximately 62 associated product terminals and petroleum pipeline transmix processing facilities serving customers across the U.S.; Terminals—consists of approximately 122 owned or operated liquids and bulk terminal facilities and approximately 10 rail transloading and materials handling facilities located throughout the U.S. and portions of Canada, which together transload, store and deliver a wide variety of bulk, petroleum, petrochemical and other liquids products for customers across the U.S. and Canada; and Kinder Morgan Canada—transports crude oil and refined petroleum products through approximately 800 miles of pipelines from Alberta, Canada to marketing terminals and refineries in British Columbia and the state of Washington; plus five associated product terminal facilities. The Company's business operations are subject to federal, state, provincial and local laws and regulations relating to environmental protection, pollution and human health and safety in the U.S. and Canada.

Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP (FRA:KM7) Headlines

No Headlines